North Carolina vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsUCF
- Q4 1:54UCFJaden Nixon 5 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)9–34
- Q3 1:06UNCKobe Paysour 8 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–27
- Q3 9:51UCFMyles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)3–27
- Q2 0:13UCFKylan Fox 17 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)3–20
- Q2 1:23UNCRece Verhoff 40 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 10:03UCFNoe Ruelas 41 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 4:51UCFNoe Ruelas 36 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:23UCFTayven Jackson 13 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGio Lopez 11/14, 87 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDemon June 10 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecJordan Shipp 3 REC, 44 YDS
- PassTayven Jackson 25/32, 223 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTayven Jackson 10 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDylan Wade 5 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:23UCF +15%
Tayven Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q2 0:13UCF +7%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 17 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q1 4:51UCF +6%
Noe Ruelas 36 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. UCF?
North Carolina 9, UCF 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
| UNC | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 217 | Total yards | 366 |
| 154 | Passing yards | 223 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 143 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 22/33 | Comp/Att | 25/32 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 7-40 |
| 26:13 | Possession | 33:47 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:11 UCF punt on 4th & 1 at UCF 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:54UCFJaden Nixon 5 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)9–34
- Q3 1:06UNCKobe Paysour 8 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–27
- Q3 9:51UCFMyles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)3–27
- Q2 0:13UCFKylan Fox 17 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)3–20
- Q2 1:23UNCRece Verhoff 40 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 10:03UCFNoe Ruelas 41 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 4:51UCFNoe Ruelas 36 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:23UCFTayven Jackson 13 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1554, UNC Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -7 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNC | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.5 (#97) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#80) |
| -8 / +3 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →