| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| UCF | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCF Elo 1554, UNC Elo 1438) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCF -7 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UCF up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Carolina 9, UCF 34.
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UCF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Braeden Marshall return for 2 yds to the UCF 8
Jacurri Brown run for 14 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST down
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
