Sat, Oct 18, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| CAL | 14 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CAL Elo 1408, UNC Elo 1342) plus home-field advantage. That projects CAL -5 (65% to win) — 3.0 points of value on UNC versus the market line of -8.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UNC ahead, below = CAL ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
CAL up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Carolina 18, California 21.
Yes — the model's pick (CAL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CAL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Gio Lopez pass complete to Nathan Leacock for 12 yds Nathan Leacock fumbled, forced by Brent Austin, recovered by CAL Brent Austin
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 23 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST down
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shanard Clower for 31 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST down
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