North Carolina vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsCAL
- Q4 12:14UNCDavion Gause 4 Yd Run (Gio Lopez Pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)18–21
- Q3 9:22CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:14UNCRece Verhoff 41 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 0:42CALJacob De Jesus 7 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:48UNCBenjamin Hall 18 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:48CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 3 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGio Lopez 19/35, 167 YDS
- RushBenjamin Hall 14 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKobe Paysour 6 REC, 101 YDS
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 21/39, 209 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKendrick Raphael 22 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob De Jesus 13 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:06CAL +32%
Brook Honore Jr. punt for 35 yds, Will Hardy returns for 6 yds to the UNC 19
- Q4 12:14UNC +28%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds for a TD (Gio Lopez pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 0:42CAL +17%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q1 4:48UNC +17%
Benjamin Hall run for 18 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q3 9:22CAL +16%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q1 12:48CAL +15%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. California?
North Carolina 18, California 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CAL) was correct.
| UNC | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 287 | Total yards | 294 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 214 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 80 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 19/35 | Comp/Att | 22/40 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-46 | Penalties | 9-79 |
| 31:10 | Possession | 28:50 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:43 UNC punt on 4th & 1 at UNC 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:14UNCDavion Gause 4 Yd Run (Gio Lopez Pass to Benjamin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)18–21
- Q3 9:22CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:14UNCRece Verhoff 41 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 0:42CALJacob De Jesus 7 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:48UNCBenjamin Hall 18 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:48CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 3 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1408, UNC Elo 1342 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL -5 (64% to win) — 3.0 points clear of UNC's market line of -8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNC | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.5 (#97) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#85) |
| -8 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →