| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| CAL | 14 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (CAL Elo 1408, UNC Elo 1342) plus home-field advantage. That projects CAL -5 (65% to win) — 3.0 points of value on UNC versus the market line of -8.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UNC ahead, below = CAL ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- UNC rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. CAL rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CAL.
- CAL rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. UNC rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge UNC.
- UNC pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. CAL pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge UNC.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CAL up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. California?
North Carolina 18, California 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CAL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CAL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.