New Mexico vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 3:41UNMLuke Drzewiecki 31 Yd Field Goal 28–35
- Q4 11:02UNMJack Layne 3 Yd Run (Jack Layne Pass to Shawn Miller for Two-Point Conversion)25–35
- Q3 2:42SJSULeland Smith 8 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)17–35
- Q3 10:27SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 10 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 25 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 3:29UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–21
- Q2 6:15SJSUDanny Scudero 70 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:30UNMDamon Bankston 4 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:22SJSUMatthew Coleman 11 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:10SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 4 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJack Layne 28/40, 344 YDS, 3 INT
- RushDamon Bankston 9 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeagan Johnson 11 REC, 145 YDS
- PassWalker Eget 26/30, 327 YDS, 3 TD
- RushSteve Chavez-Soto 14 CAR, 71 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDanny Scudero 7 REC, 151 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:27SJSU +18%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 10 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
- Q2 6:15SJSU +17%
PENALTY UNM Roughing The Kicker (Swaim,Mercury) 15 yards from SJSU35 to SJSU50. NO PLAY
- Q1 9:10SJSU +17%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 4 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
- Q2 3:29UNM +15%
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q2 9:30UNM +14%
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q2 14:22SJSU +13%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 11 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. San José State?
New Mexico 28, San José State 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
| UNM | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 420 | Total yards | 480 |
| 344 | Passing yards | 327 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 29 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/40 | Comp/Att | 26/30 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-48 | Penalties | 8-83 |
| 26:33 | Possession | 33:27 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:38 SJSU punt on 4th & 2 at UNM 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:41UNMLuke Drzewiecki 31 Yd Field Goal 28–35
- Q4 11:02UNMJack Layne 3 Yd Run (Jack Layne Pass to Shawn Miller for Two-Point Conversion)25–35
- Q3 2:42SJSULeland Smith 8 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)17–35
- Q3 10:27SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 10 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 25 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 3:29UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–21
- Q2 6:15SJSUDanny Scudero 70 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:30UNMDamon Bankston 4 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:22SJSUMatthew Coleman 11 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:10SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 4 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1423, UNM Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -2.3 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan José State leads 16–5–1 · San José State has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| UNM | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#63) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#78) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →