Sat, Oct 4, 2:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| SJSU | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SJSU Elo 1423, UNM Elo 1426) plus home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -2.3 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Unlock with Pro →SJSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico 28, San José State 35.
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated out-of-sample: +0.449 pts mean Closing Line Value and 56.4% beat the close (n=1,596, 2021-2025 opens, walk-forward). We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SJSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 70 yds for a TD
Jack Layne pass intercepted Larry Turner-Gooden return for 9 yds to the SJSU 33
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 42 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST down
