New Mexico vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsAF
- Q4 3:59UNMLuke Drzewiecki 23 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q4 10:12AFReagan Tubbs 27 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:42UNMLuke Drzewiecki 27 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:08UNMDamon Bankston 2 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:27UNMJack Layne 12 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJack Layne 10/15, 105 YDS
- RushDamon Bankston 10 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeagan Johnson 4 REC, 55 YDS
- PassJosh Johnson 3/6, 46 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKemper Hodges 20 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecJonah Dawson 2 REC, 28 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:27UNM +18%
Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 12 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:08UNM +15%
Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Air Force?
New Mexico 20, Air Force 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| UNM | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 277 | Total yards | 161 |
| 105 | Passing yards | 51 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 110 |
| 18 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 10/15 | Comp/Att | 4/11 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 30:46 | Possession | 29:14 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:59UNMLuke Drzewiecki 23 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q4 10:12AFReagan Tubbs 27 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:42UNMLuke Drzewiecki 27 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:08UNMDamon Bankston 2 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:27UNMJack Layne 12 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1383, UNM Elo 1458 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF +0.6 (50% to win) — 2.9 points clear of AF's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 26–16 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| UNM | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#63) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#119) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +6 / +24 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 3.13 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 3.57 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →