| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
| AF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AF Elo 1383, UNM Elo 1458) plus home-field advantage. That projects AF +0.6 (48% to win) — 2.9 points of value on AF versus the market line of +3.5.
UNM up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico 20, Air Force 3.
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #81 J.Dawson caught at UNM43, for 21 yards to the UNM43 (#12 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
(08:40) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete deep right to #6 K.Johnson caught at AF49, for 20 yards to the AF49 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWN
(09:34) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 12 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)
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