Nebraska
7-5·Big Ten· Elo 1580
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 14 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 22 |
| UTAH | 7 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 44 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTAH Elo 1954, NEB Elo 1580) on a neutral field. That projects UTAH -15 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = NEB ahead, below = UTAH ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
UTAH up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nebraska 22, Utah 44.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier pass complete deep middle to #81 J.Buchanan caught at NEB00, for 20 yards to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:05 #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
(11:01) Shotgun #14 T.Lateef pass intercepted by #11 R.Caldwell at UTAH05, End Of Play
(09:28) Shotgun #4 D.Dampier rush right for 43 yards gain to the NEB20 (#21 R.Guthrie), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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