Nebraska vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 1:55NEBTJ Lateef 7 Yd Run (TJ Lateef Pass to Quinn Clark for Two-Point Conversion)22–44
- Q4 8:16UTAHDallen Bentley 17 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis PAT failed)14–44
- Q3 5:56UTAHDevon Dampier 5 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–38
- Q3 10:40UTAHNaQuari Rogers 3 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:20UTAHDevon Dampier 11 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–24
- Q2 4:13UTAHDillon Curtis 28 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 10:05UTAHJJ Buchanan 20 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:20NEBJacory Barney Jr. 8 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:33UTAHDevon Dampier 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08NEBMekhi Nelson 38 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = NEB ahead, below = UTAH ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassTJ Lateef 15/28, 182 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMekhi Nelson 12 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsaiah Mozee 4 REC, 48 YDS
- PassDevon Dampier 19/31, 310 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDevon Dampier 19 CAR, 148 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDallen Bentley 6 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. Utah?
Nebraska 22, Utah 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| NEB | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 343 | Total yards | 535 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 310 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 225 |
| 17 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 31:39 | Possession | 28:21 |
- Q4 1:55NEBTJ Lateef 7 Yd Run (TJ Lateef Pass to Quinn Clark for Two-Point Conversion)22–44
- Q4 8:16UTAHDallen Bentley 17 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis PAT failed)14–44
- Q3 5:56UTAHDevon Dampier 5 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–38
- Q3 10:40UTAHNaQuari Rogers 3 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:20UTAHDevon Dampier 11 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–24
- Q2 4:13UTAHDillon Curtis 28 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 10:05UTAHJJ Buchanan 20 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:20NEBJacory Barney Jr. 8 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:33UTAHDevon Dampier 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08NEBMekhi Nelson 38 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1954, NEB Elo 1580 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UTAH -15 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NEB | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#68) | CORE overall | +29.1 (#7) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | +19 / -10 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 3.52 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.62 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →