Navy
American Athletic· Elo 1546
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 7 | 0 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| TEM | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEM Elo 1228, NAVY Elo 1546) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEM +10.3 (22% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TEM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Navy 32, Temple 31.
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
B. Horvath run for 51 yds for a TD (B. Horvath pass to A. Tecza for Two-Point Conversion)
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 46 yds to the NAVY 22 for a 1ST down
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 50 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →