Navy vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsTEM
- Q4 0:39NAVYBlake Horvath 51 Yd Run (Blake Horvath Pass to Alex Tecza for Two-Point Conversion)32–31
- Q4 1:16TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)24–31
- Q4 6:34NAVYNathan Kirkwood 48 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 2:22NAVYAlex Tecza 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–24
- Q3 6:37TEMJoJo Bermudez 26 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–24
- Q3 9:59NAVYBlake Horvath 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:25TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:13TEMCarl Hardin 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:19TEMEvan Simon 2 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:18NAVYCody Howard 50 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Horvath 6/17, 141 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBlake Horvath 19 CAR, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 3 REC, 72 YDS
- PassEvan Simon 25/36, 345 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJay Ducker 24 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKajiya Hollawayne 9 REC, 146 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:39NAVY +95%
B. Horvath run for 51 yds for a TD (B. Horvath pass to A. Tecza for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 0:20TEM +62%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 8 yds to the TEM 33
- Q4 1:19TEM +40%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 22 yds to the NAVY 1 for a 1ST down
- Q3 2:22NAVY +30%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q4 1:16TEM +29%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
- Q3 6:37TEM +27%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 26 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Temple?
Navy 32, Temple 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| NAVY | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 518 |
| 141 | Passing yards | 345 |
| 243 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 15 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 6/17 | Comp/Att | 25/36 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 25:58 | Possession | 34:02 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:13 TEM field goal on 4th & 5 at NAVY 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:39NAVYBlake Horvath 51 Yd Run (Blake Horvath Pass to Alex Tecza for Two-Point Conversion)32–31
- Q4 1:16TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)24–31
- Q4 6:34NAVYNathan Kirkwood 48 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 2:22NAVYAlex Tecza 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–24
- Q3 6:37TEMJoJo Bermudez 26 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–24
- Q3 9:59NAVYBlake Horvath 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:25TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:13TEMCarl Hardin 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:19TEMEvan Simon 2 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:18NAVYCody Howard 50 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1228, NAVY Elo 1546 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM +10.3 (26% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 11–9 · Navy has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#43) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#100) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | -3 / +9 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 2.74 | allowed / drive | 3.17 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -20 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →