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Navy vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Fri, Jan 2, 9:30 PM
Simmons Bank Liberty StadiumNeutral site
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
| CIN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CIN 1519
NAVY 1527
Projected spread
CIN +0.3
neutral site
Model pick
NAVY
51% to win
Market spread
CIN +6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CIN
6.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
49%
CIN · market 32%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1519, NAVY Elo 1527) on a neutral field. That projects CIN +0.3 (49% to win) — 6.2 points of value on CIN versus the market line of +6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CIN (top)NAVY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NAVY2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCIN
Offense
0.30
PPA / play
0.2949%
Success rate
46%1.24
Explosiveness
1.314.22
Pts / opportunity
4.6081%
Power success
76%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.2141%
Success rate allowed
45%1.34
Explosiveness allowed
1.1713%
Havoc rate
12%18%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- NAVY pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. CIN pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge NAVY.
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. NAVY rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge CIN.
- NAVY rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. CIN rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge NAVY.
Drive-by-drive
NAVY 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 3/12 scoring drives
CINPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
NAVYPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 30Q1
CINPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 32Q1
NAVYPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 42Q1
CINPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 14Q1
NAVYTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1
CINTD17 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q1
NAVYPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q2
CINPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 31Q2
NAVYTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
CINEND2 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2
NAVYTD7 pl, 34 yds· opp 35Q3
CINFUM3 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q3
NAVYFUM1 pl, 14 yds· opp 48Q3
CINPUNT5 pl, -12 yds· own 34Q3
NAVYPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 11Q3
CINDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 48Q3
NAVYTD14 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3
CINTD8 pl, 66 yds· own 25Q4
NAVYPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q4
CINTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 2Q4
CINPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4
NAVYUncateg4 pl, 13 yds· own 29Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NAVY up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
NAVY went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Cincinnati?
Navy 35, Cincinnati 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.