Missouri vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsARK
- Q4 8:07MIZKevin Coleman Jr. 67 Yd Punt Return (Jamal Roberts Run for Two-Point Conversion)31–17
- Q4 9:56MIZOliver Robbins 41 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q3 11:57MIZAhmad Hardy 53 Yd Run (Two-Point Conversion failed)20–17
- Q2 0:11ARKScott Starzyk 28 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 9:33MIZBeau Pribula 11 Yd Run (Oliver Robbins Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:12ARKBradley Shaw 32 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:20ARKO'Mega Blake 16 Yd pass from KJ Jackson (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:25MIZJamal Roberts 4 Yd Run (Oliver Robbins Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBeau Pribula 4/7, 25 YDS
- RushAhmad Hardy 27 CAR, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrett Norfleet 2 REC, 13 YDS
- PassKJ Jackson 11/17, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMike Washington Jr. 11 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecO'Mega Blake 4 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:57MIZ +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 53 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN rush attempt failed
- Q2 9:33MIZ +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane".…
- Q2 14:12ARK +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula rush middle for 14 yards loss to the MIZ32 fumbled by #9 B.Pribula at MIZ35 recovered by ARK #7 B.Shaw at MIZ32 #7 B.Shaw return 32 yard…
- Q4 8:07MIZ +19%
#37 D.Bale punt 49 yards to the MIZ33 #3 K.Coleman Jr. return 67 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY #20 J.Roberts rush attempt…
- Q1 2:20ARK +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jackson pass complete short middle to #9 O.Blake caught at MIZ00, for 16 yards to the MIZ00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:11ARK +16%
#80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Arkansas?
Missouri 31, Arkansas 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| MIZ | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Total yards | 246 |
| 25 | Passing yards | 185 |
| 322 | Rushing yards | 61 |
| 26 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 4/7 | Comp/Att | 17/30 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 16-121 |
| 34:03 | Possession | 25:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:04 ARK field goal on 4th & 2 at MIZ 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:07MIZKevin Coleman Jr. 67 Yd Punt Return (Jamal Roberts Run for Two-Point Conversion)31–17
- Q4 9:56MIZOliver Robbins 41 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q3 11:57MIZAhmad Hardy 53 Yd Run (Two-Point Conversion failed)20–17
- Q2 0:11ARKScott Starzyk 28 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 9:33MIZBeau Pribula 11 Yd Run (Oliver Robbins Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:12ARKBradley Shaw 32 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:20ARKO'Mega Blake 16 Yd pass from KJ Jackson (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:25MIZJamal Roberts 4 Yd Run (Oliver Robbins Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1588, MIZ Elo 1748 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +4 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMissouri leads 13–4 · Missouri has won 4 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.9 (#12) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#37) |
| +5 / -15 | offense / defense | +20 / +9 |
| 2.45 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 3.48 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →