| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 7 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 31 |
| ARK | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARK Elo 1588, MIZ Elo 1748) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARK +4 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri 31, Arkansas 17.
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:25) #37 D.Bale punt 49 yards to the MIZ33 #3 K.Coleman Jr. return 67 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:07 #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY #20 J.Roberts rush attempt Successful PENALTY ARK Illegal Substitution declined
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Roberts rush middle for 38 yards gain to the ARK21 (#13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWN
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 A.Hardy rush right for 53 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:57, 1ST DOWN rush attempt failed
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