Sat, Sep 6, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| MRSH | 0 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MRSH Elo 1519, MOST Elo 1335) plus home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -9.8 (77% to win) — 2.8 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of -7.
MRSH up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,644 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri State 21, Marshall 20.
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MRSH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 57 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 52 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
Zion Turner pass to Jakolbe Baldwin
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