Missouri State vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MOSTTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 2:12MOSTJeron Askren 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)21–20
- Q3 7:59MOSTJmariyae Robinson 52 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–20
- Q3 9:08MRSHLorcan Quinn 33 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 0:44MRSHLorcan Quinn 50 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 3:36MRSHJustin Williams-Thomas 37 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:07MRSHZion Turner 14 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:57MOSTRamone Green Jr. 57 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MOST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MRSH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 6.6
- PassJacob Clark 21/31, 359 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushShomari Lawrence 17 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecRamone Green Jr. 4 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- PassZion Turner 13/24, 83 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJo'Shon Barbie 12 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecToby Payne 4 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,644 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:51MRSH +72%
Marshall Penalty, falsestart (Tyler McDuffie)
- Q4 4:49MOST +29%
Missouri State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
- Q2 3:15MRSH +21%
Jacob Clark pass to Tristian Gardner for 1 yd to the MOST 21
- Q4 0:00MOST +20%
Kneel down by Missouri St. at MAR10 for loss of 1 yard
- Q2 11:07MRSH +20%
Zion Turner run for 14 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
- Q2 13:57MOST +20%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 57 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Marshall?
Missouri State 21, Marshall 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MOST | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 474 | Total yards | 274 |
| 388 | Passing yards | 83 |
| 86 | Rushing yards | 191 |
| 18 | First downs | 12 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 22/32 | Comp/Att | 13/24 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-93 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 34:34 | Possession | 25:26 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:37 MRSH field goal on 4th & 1 at MOST 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:12MOSTJeron Askren 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)21–20
- Q3 7:59MOSTJmariyae Robinson 52 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–20
- Q3 9:08MRSHLorcan Quinn 33 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 0:44MRSHLorcan Quinn 50 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 3:36MRSHJustin Williams-Thomas 37 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:07MRSHZion Turner 14 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:57MOSTRamone Green Jr. 57 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1519, MOST Elo 1335 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -9.8 (75% to win) — 2.8 points clear of MRSH's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MOST | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 (#92) | CORE overall | -2.7 (#71) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +0 / +3 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →