Joan C. Edwards StadiumClosing line: MRSH -7 · MOST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| MRSH | 0 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
Team stats
MOSTthis game · better side highlightedMRSH
474
Total yards
274388
Passing yards
8386
Rushing yards
19118
First downs
127-16 · 44%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MRSH 1519
MOST 1335
Projected spread
MRSH -9.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
MRSH
77% to win
Market spread
MRSH -7
sportsbook line
Model edge
MRSH
2.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
77%
MRSH · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MRSH Elo 1519, MOST Elo 1335) plus home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -9.8 (77% to win) — 2.8 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of -7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MRSH (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MRSH 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MRSH rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. MOST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MRSH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MRSH.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. MRSH rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge MRSH.
Drive-by-drive
MOST 3/9 scoring drives← own end zone →MRSH 2/9 scoring drives
MOSTPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
MRSHPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 19Q1
MOSTPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 46Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MRSH up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,644 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
78%
MRSH went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Marshall?
Missouri State 21, Marshall 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MRSH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.