Razorback StadiumConference gameClosing line: ARK -5.5 · MSST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 7 | 0 | 14 | 17 | 38 |
| ARK | 0 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 35 |
Team stats
MSSTthis game · better side highlightedARK
388
Total yards
433282
Passing yards
194106
Rushing yards
23925
First downs
256-14 · 43%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARK 1604
MSST 1514
Projected spread
ARK -6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARK
67% to win
Market spread
ARK -5.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
67%
ARK · market 63%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARK Elo 1604, MSST Elo 1514) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARK -6 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARK (top)MSST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARK 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ARK pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge ARK.
- ARK rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. MSST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge ARK.
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. ARK rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge ARK.
Drive-by-drive
MSST 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARK 6/12 scoring drives
ARKPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 31Q1
MSSTTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
ARKPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARK up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ARK went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Arkansas?
Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ARK pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.