Mississippi State vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsARK
- Q4 0:48MSSTAnthony Evans III 18 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)38–35
- Q4 5:07MSSTKyle Ferrie 46 Yd Field Goal 31–35
- Q4 10:16MSSTDavon Booth 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)28–35
- Q4 13:43ARKBraylen Russell 2 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–35
- Q3 4:49MSSTKamario Taylor 20 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)21–28
- Q3 6:18ARKMike Washington Jr. 20 Yd Run (Taylen Green Pass to Rohan Jones for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q3 9:23ARKTaylen Green 8 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–20
- Q3 13:43MSSTAnthony Evans III 45 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–13
- Q2 0:01ARKScott Starzyk 30 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 7:32ARKScott Starzyk 42 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 13:54ARKRohan Jones 3 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:06MSSTDavon Booth 8 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Shapen 16/28, 242 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKamario Taylor 6 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Evans III 5 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTaylen Green 19/31, 194 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMike Washington Jr. 19 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRaylen Sharpe 5 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:39ARK +49%
#37 D.Bale punt 43 yards to the MSU00, Touchback
- Q4 1:53MSST +33%
Shotgun #2 B.Shapen rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARK26 (#16 M.Mitchell)
- Q4 6:13MSST +22%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#61 T.Mayberry) 5 yards from ARK17 to ARK22. NO PLAY
- Q4 10:24MSST +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Evans III thrown to ARK00 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (#21 K.Davila) 12 yards from ARK14 to ARK02,…
- Q4 3:08ARK +15%
#37 D.Bale punt 43 yards to the MSU31 fair catch by #3 A.Evans III at MSU31
- Q4 8:29ARK +14%
#37 D.Bale punt 39 yards to the MSU29, out of bounds at MSU29
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Arkansas?
Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSST | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Total yards | 433 |
| 282 | Passing yards | 194 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 239 |
| 25 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 18/33 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 18-193 |
| 25:39 | Possession | 34:21 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:57 MSST punt on 4th & 14 at ARK 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:48MSSTAnthony Evans III 18 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)38–35
- Q4 5:07MSSTKyle Ferrie 46 Yd Field Goal 31–35
- Q4 10:16MSSTDavon Booth 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)28–35
- Q4 13:43ARKBraylen Russell 2 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–35
- Q3 4:49MSSTKamario Taylor 20 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)21–28
- Q3 6:18ARKMike Washington Jr. 20 Yd Run (Taylen Green Pass to Rohan Jones for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q3 9:23ARKTaylen Green 8 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–20
- Q3 13:43MSSTAnthony Evans III 45 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–13
- Q2 0:01ARKScott Starzyk 30 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 7:32ARKScott Starzyk 42 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 13:54ARKRohan Jones 3 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:06MSSTDavon Booth 8 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1604, MSST Elo 1514 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -6 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas leads 19–16–1 · 56% have been one-possession games
| MSST | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#64) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#37) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | +20 / +9 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 3.48 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →