Minnesota
Big Ten· Elo 1592
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| IOWA | 17 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IOWA Elo 1830, MINN Elo 1592) plus home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -11.9 (81% to win) — 4.4 points of value on IOWA versus the market line of -7.5.
IOWA up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Minnesota 3, Iowa 41.
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IOWA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(13:41) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at Minn00, for 29 yards to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:33, 1ST DOWN #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)
(09:43) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey sacked for loss of 11 yards to the Minn45 (#95 A.Graves)
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