Minnesota vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 5:30IOWAJeremy Hecklinski 6 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)3–41
- Q3 0:03MINNBrady Denaburg 34 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q3 4:06IOWADrew Stevens 46 Yd Field Goal 0–34
- Q2 11:23IOWAKaden Wetjen 50 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)0–31
- Q2 13:33IOWAReece Vander Zee 29 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:57IOWAZach Lutmer 34 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:19IOWADrew Stevens 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:06IOWAMark Gronowski 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrake Lindsey 16/28, 109 YDS, 3 INT
- RushXavier Ford 8 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecLe'Meke Brockington 6 REC, 54 YDS
- PassMark Gronowski 12/19, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKamari Moulton 15 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecKaden Wetjen 3 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Iowa?
Minnesota 3, Iowa 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| MINN | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 133 | Total yards | 274 |
| 109 | Passing yards | 141 |
| 24 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 10 | First downs | 13 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 26:50 | Possession | 33:10 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:53 IOWA punt on 4th & 1 at IOWA 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:30IOWAJeremy Hecklinski 6 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)3–41
- Q3 0:03MINNBrady Denaburg 34 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q3 4:06IOWADrew Stevens 46 Yd Field Goal 0–34
- Q2 11:23IOWAKaden Wetjen 50 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)0–31
- Q2 13:33IOWAReece Vander Zee 29 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:57IOWAZach Lutmer 34 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:19IOWADrew Stevens 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:06IOWAMark Gronowski 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1830, MINN Elo 1592 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -11.9 (79% to win) — 4.4 points clear of IOWA's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMinnesota leads 62–54–2 · Iowa has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| MINN | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.1 (#96) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#24) |
| -7 / +3 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 1.35 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →