Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MTSUTeam statsNMSU
- OT 0:00MTSUAJ Jones 11 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)31–24
- Q4 0:58NMSURyan Hawk 35 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 5:05MTSULandon Collins 19 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)24–21
- Q4 11:49NMSUAdam Damante 1 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–21
- Q3 0:52NMSUTK King 5 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–14
- Q3 6:04MTSUJacob Hathaway 25 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 0:15MTSUAJ Jones 24 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:45MTSUDJ Taylor 64 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:39NMSUTK King 64 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Ryan Hawk Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRoman Gagliano 24/42, 260 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJekail Middlebrook 20 CAR, 95 YDS
- RecLandon Collins 5 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAdam Damante 29/44, 311 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushKadarius Calloway 9 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecTK King 10 REC, 178 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMTSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:27NMSU +69%
Kneel down by #15 P.Awad at NMSU07 for loss of 1 yard
- Q4 0:31MTSU +63%
#32 A.Logan punt 63 yards to the NMSU08
- Q4 5:05MTSU +54%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #89 L.Collins caught at NMSU00, for 19 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- OT 0:00MTSU +46%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep right to #5 M.Butler thrown to NMSU01, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NMSU Pass Interference (#23 S.McKelvey) 15 yards from NM…
- Q4 0:58NMSU +41%
#17 R.Hawk field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD
- Q4 11:49NMSU +35%
No Huddle #14 A.Damante rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico State?
Middle Tennessee 31, New Mexico State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NMSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MTSU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 459 | Total yards | 395 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 311 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/43 | Comp/Att | 29/47 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 13-129 | Penalties | 6-45 |
| 30:33 | Possession | 29:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:11 MTSU punt on 4th & 2 at NMSU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00MTSUAJ Jones 11 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)31–24
- Q4 0:58NMSURyan Hawk 35 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 5:05MTSULandon Collins 19 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)24–21
- Q4 11:49NMSUAdam Damante 1 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–21
- Q3 0:52NMSUTK King 5 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–14
- Q3 6:04MTSUJacob Hathaway 25 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 0:15MTSUAJ Jones 24 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:45MTSUDJ Taylor 64 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:39NMSUTK King 64 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Ryan Hawk Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NMSU Elo 1188, MTSU Elo 1148 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU -4 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.9 (#113) | CORE overall | -17.5 (#120) |
| -5 / +11 | offense / defense | -12 / +6 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.66 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →