Aggie Memorial StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| NMSU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NMSU 1188
MTSU 1148
Projected spread
NMSU -4
incl. home edge
Model pick
NMSU
62% to win
Market spread
NMSU -3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
62%
NMSU · market 60%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NMSU Elo 1188, MTSU Elo 1148) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU -4 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NMSU (top)MTSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. MTSU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- MTSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge MTSU.
Drive-by-drive
MTSU 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 4/15 scoring drives
MTSUFUM10 pl, 57 yds· own 27Q1
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 7Q1
MTSUPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 30Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MTSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
MTSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico State?
Middle Tennessee 31, New Mexico State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NMSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had NMSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.