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Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap
Wed, Oct 22, 11:30 PM
Delaware StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| DEL | 7 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
DEL 1468
MTSU 1181
Projected spread
DEL -13.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
DEL
85% to win
Market spread
DEL -8.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
DEL
5.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
85%
DEL · market 75%
Our model blends Elo ratings (DEL Elo 1468, MTSU Elo 1181) plus home-field advantage. That projects DEL -13.9 (85% to win) — 5.4 points of value on DEL versus the market line of -8.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
DEL (top)MTSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DEL 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MTSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedDEL
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.1943%
Success rate
44%1.22
Explosiveness
1.253.20
Pts / opportunity
3.5265%
Power success
69%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.2245%
Success rate allowed
42%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.4216%
Havoc rate
16%23%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- DEL pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- MTSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. DEL rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge DEL.
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. DEL pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge DEL.
Drive-by-drive
MTSU 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →DEL 5/14 scoring drives
MTSUPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
DELTD10 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1
MTSUTD12 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
DELFUM1 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q1
MTSUTD2 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q1
DELTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 35Q2
DELFG11 pl, 56 yds· own 20Q2
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 16Q2
DELPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 46Q2
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 32Q2
DELTD10 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q2
MTSUPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
DELEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 4Q2
DELPUNT3 pl, -17 yds· own 40Q3
MTSUINT10 pl, 75 yds· own 10Q3
DELPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 8Q3
MTSUTD5 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q3
DELTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
DELPUNT7 pl, 7 yds· midfieldQ3
MTSUPUNT8 pl, 29 yds· own 15Q4
DELPUNT8 pl, 32 yds· own 20Q4
MTSUFUM4 pl, 8 yds· own 16Q4
DELINT3 pl, 13 yds· opp 24Q4
MTSUTD11 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q4
DELEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 46Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
DEL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
DEL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware?
Middle Tennessee 28, Delaware 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had DEL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.