Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MTSUTeam statsDEL
- Q4 1:03MTSUAJ Jones 6 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)28–31
- Q3 1:39DELKyre Duplessis 9 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)21–31
- Q3 5:11MTSUHunter Tipton 11 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:38DELKyre Duplessis 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)14–24
- Q2 6:25DELNate Reed 49 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:39DELSean Wilson 10 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:58MTSUJekail Middlebrook 4 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:59MTSUNahzae Cox 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:28DELSean Wilson 22 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNicholas Vattiato 31/48, 281 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJekail Middlebrook 11 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Tipton 5 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNick Minicucci 27/42, 276 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJo Silver 14 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecKyre Duplessis 7 REC, 65 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDEL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:03MTSU +21%
AJ Jones 6 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
- Q4 1:01DEL +20%
Kneel down by Delaware at MTSU47 for loss of 1 yard
- Q2 6:25DEL +16%
Nate Reed 49 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 0:38DEL +14%
Kyre Duplessis 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)
- Q1 13:36MTSU +14%
#32 A.Logan punt 43 yards to the DEL11 fair catch by #19 K.Duplessis at DEL11
- Q3 5:11MTSU +7%
Hunter Tipton 11 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware?
Middle Tennessee 28, Delaware 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
| MTSU | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 360 |
| 281 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 103 | Rushing yards | 79 |
| 24 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 31/50 | Comp/Att | 28/44 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 27:05 | Possession | 32:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:44 DEL punt on 4th & 2 at MTSU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:03MTSUAJ Jones 6 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)28–31
- Q3 1:39DELKyre Duplessis 9 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)21–31
- Q3 5:11MTSUHunter Tipton 11 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:38DELKyre Duplessis 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)14–24
- Q2 6:25DELNate Reed 49 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:39DELSean Wilson 10 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:58MTSUJekail Middlebrook 4 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:59MTSUNahzae Cox 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:28DELSean Wilson 22 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DEL Elo 1468, MTSU Elo 1181 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DEL -13.9 (82% to win) — 5.4 points clear of DEL's market line of -8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.9 (#113) | CORE overall | -15.0 (#107) |
| -5 / +11 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 2.66 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →