| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 10 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 30 |
| NEB | 0 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEB Elo 1699, MICH Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB +3.7 (39% to win) — 3.2 points of value on MICH versus the market line of +0.5.
MICH up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan 30, Nebraska 27.
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 52 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
Justice Haynes run for 75 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 1 yd to the MICH 5
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