Michigan vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsNEB
- Q4 1:34NEBHeinrich Haarberg 3 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)30–27
- Q4 3:54MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 30–20
- Q4 14:56NEBKyle Cunanan 38 Yd Field Goal 27–20
- Q3 5:40MICHJordan Marshall 54 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)27–17
- Q3 7:43MICHDominic Zvada 56 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 0:00NEBJacory Barney Jr. 52 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:51MICHJustice Haynes 75 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–10
- Q2 2:01NEBJacory Barney Jr. 26 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)10–10
- Q2 8:58NEBKyle Cunanan 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 0:11MICHBryce Underwood 37 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–0
- Q1 1:38MICHDominic Zvada 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MICH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 7.5
- MICH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassBryce Underwood 12/22, 105 YDS
- RushJustice Haynes 17 CAR, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonaven McCulley 3 REC, 39 YDS
- PassDylan Raiola 30/41, 308 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushEmmett Johnson 19 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecJacory Barney Jr. 6 REC, 120 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:53NEB +34%
Emmett Johnson run for 14 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST down
- Q4 1:34NEB +27%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
- Q4 1:29MICH +24%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the NEB 42
- Q4 3:54MICH +19%
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:05MICH +11%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 42 yds, Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 2 yds to the NEB 29
- Q3 4:51NEB +8%
PENALTY U-M UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hillman,Brandyn) 15 yards from NEB18 to NEB33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Nebraska?
Michigan 30, Nebraska 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| MICH | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total yards | 351 |
| 105 | Passing yards | 308 |
| 286 | Rushing yards | 43 |
| 16 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 12/23 | Comp/Att | 30/41 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 8.7 | Yards per rush | 1.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-39 | Penalties | 3-9 |
| 26:43 | Possession | 33:17 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:44 MICH punt on 4th & 2 at MICH 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:34NEBHeinrich Haarberg 3 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)30–27
- Q4 3:54MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 30–20
- Q4 14:56NEBKyle Cunanan 38 Yd Field Goal 27–20
- Q3 5:40MICHJordan Marshall 54 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)27–17
- Q3 7:43MICHDominic Zvada 56 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 0:00NEBJacory Barney Jr. 52 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:51MICHJustice Haynes 75 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–10
- Q2 2:01NEBJacory Barney Jr. 26 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)10–10
- Q2 8:58NEBKyle Cunanan 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 0:11MICHBryce Underwood 37 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–0
- Q1 1:38MICHDominic Zvada 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1699, MICH Elo 1852 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB +3.7 (41% to win) — 3.2 points clear of MICH's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 9–4–1 · Michigan has won 5 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| MICH | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.4 (#22) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#68) |
| +11 / -6 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →