| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| IOWA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IOWA Elo 1907, MSU Elo 1377) plus home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -23.6 (96% to win) — 6.1 points of value on IOWA versus the market line of -17.5.
MSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan State 17, Iowa 20.
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IOWA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:53) #96 R.Eckley punt 48 yards to the IOWA38 #21 K.Wetjen return 62 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:38 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)
(09:04) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA02, for 45 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:58, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY IOWA Roughing Holder (#49 E.Hurkett) #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY IOWA Roughing Holder (#49 E.Hurkett) 15 yards from IOWA00 to MSU50
End of 4th quarter.
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