Michigan State vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSUTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 0:02IOWADrew Stevens 44 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q4 1:29IOWAJacob Gill 13 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)17–17
- Q4 11:27IOWADrew Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 1:13MSUChrishon McCray 5 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)17–7
- Q3 8:58MSUChrishon McCray 45 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)10–7
- Q2 2:54MSUMartin Connington 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 3:38IOWAKaden Wetjen 62 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- IOWA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassAlessio Milivojevic 25/42, 255 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrandon Tullis 8 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecJack Velling 8 REC, 88 YDS
- PassMark Gronowski 12/22, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKamari Moulton 18 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecReece Vander Zee 2 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:29IOWA +77%
#11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at MSU00, for 13 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:29IOWA +67%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA45, for 6 yards to the IOWA46 (#30 A.Grose)
- Q4 1:23MSU +47%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU36, for 12 yards to the MSU37 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWN
- Q3 1:13MSU +33%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA00, for 5 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 8:58MSU +19%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA02, for 45 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 11:27IOWA +16%
#18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Iowa?
Michigan State 17, Iowa 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| MSU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Total yards | 301 |
| 255 | Passing yards | 147 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 154 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/42 | Comp/Att | 12/22 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 30:20 | Possession | 29:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 0:41 MSU punt on 4th & 2 at MSU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:02IOWADrew Stevens 44 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q4 1:29IOWAJacob Gill 13 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)17–17
- Q4 11:27IOWADrew Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 1:13MSUChrishon McCray 5 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)17–7
- Q3 8:58MSUChrishon McCray 45 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)10–7
- Q2 2:54MSUMartin Connington 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 3:38IOWAKaden Wetjen 62 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1907, MSU Elo 1377 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -23.6 (93% to win) — 6.1 points clear of IOWA's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIowa leads 26–23–2 · 49% have been one-possession games
| MSU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.6 (#91) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#24) |
| -4 / +4 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.64 | allowed / drive | 1.35 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →