Miami (OH) vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsWIS
- Q4 6:45WISDanny O'Neil 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–17
- Q3 4:08WISVinny Anthony II 3 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–10
- Q1 1:39WISNathanial Vakos 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDequan Finn 9/18, 83 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKenny Tracy 6 CAR, 15 YDS
- RecCole Weaver 3 REC, 35 YDS
- PassDanny O'Neil 12/19, 120 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDilin Jones 14 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecVinny Anthony II 4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:08WIS +20%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q1 1:39WIS +8%
Nathanial Vakos 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:42WIS +8%
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 47
- Q3 6:54M-OH +7%
Pierse Stainton punt for 35 yds
- Q4 6:45WIS +6%
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q4 10:42WIS +6%
Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete deep left to Hilton Jr.,Eugene thrown to MOH43 PENALTY MOH Pass Interference (Toney,Coleman, Jr.) 15 yards from WIS36 to MOH49, 1S…
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Wisconsin?
Miami (OH) 0, Wisconsin 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
| M-OH | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Total yards | 353 |
| 83 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 34 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 7 | First downs | 23 |
| 0-9 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/18 | Comp/Att | 18/32 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-60 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 20:47 | Possession | 39:13 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:55 M-OH punt on 4th & 3 at WIS 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:45WISDanny O'Neil 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–17
- Q3 4:08WISVinny Anthony II 3 Yd pass from Danny O'Neil (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–10
- Q1 1:39WISNathanial Vakos 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1536, M-OH Elo 1528 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -2.7 (58% to win) — 15.3 points clear of M-OH's market line of -18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| M-OH | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -3.3 (#72) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | -11 / -8 |
| 1.96 | points / drive | 1.23 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →