Fifth Third Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| KENN | 0 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 27 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KENN (top)MERR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENN 100%
Drive-by-drive
MERR 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →KENN 6/10 scoring drives
MERRUncateg8 pl, 48 yds· own 7Q1
KENNPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 45Q0
MERRDOWNS10 pl, 45 yds· own 3Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KENN up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
KENN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Merrimack vs. Kennesaw State?
Merrimack 13, Kennesaw State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MERR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MERR pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.