Merrimack vs. Kennesaw State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Merrimack0-1

0013

Kennesaw State0-2

▸0027

Final

Fifth Third Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MERR	0	0	0	13	13
KENN	0	7	17	3	27

MERRTeam statsKENN

294Total yards369

215Pass196

79Rush173

16First downs21

8-163rd down5-12

0Turnovers1

36:48Possession23:47

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55KENNBritton Williams 44 Yd Field Goal 13–27
• Q4 7:13MERRRJ Chapman 85 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–24
• Q4 10:04MERRAyden Pereira 1 Yd Run (Carlton Thai Kick)7–24
• Q3 1:07KENNBritton Williams 38 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q3 7:07KENNAmari Odom 12 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–21
• Q3 9:47KENNGabriel Benyard 7 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
• Q2 4:45KENNDexter Williams II 4 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

KENN −17.5

Against the number

MERR covered

line KENN −17.5

What the numbers say

• MERR lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

KENN 100%50%MERR 100%

Kickoff154 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

KENN (top)MERR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENN 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

KENN −17.5

Closing total

44.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MERR 13 – 27 KENN

Leaders

Merrimack

• PassAyden Pereira 12/23, 181 YDS
• RushAyden Pereira 23 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJalen McDonald 5 REC, 116 YDS

Kennesaw State

• PassAmari Odom 12/14, 108 YDS, 1 TD
• RushAlexander Diggs 9 CAR, 55 YDS
• RecChristian Moss 6 REC, 68 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.30

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

KENN up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

KENN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Louisiana Tech38-14WIndiana vs Indiana State41-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg48-17WDuke vs Northwestern38-14WArkansas State vs Stony Brook31-7

Fourth downs

17 calls

MERR gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.MERR 5/8 · KENN 6/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Merrimack vs. Kennesaw State?

Merrimack 13, Kennesaw State 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MERR

KENN

33%

Success rate

41%

0.34

EPA / pass

-0.13

0.01

EPA / rush

0.43

25%

Early-down success

40%

42%

Pass success

39%

24%

Rush success

42%

15%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

39%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

50%

Pass rate

50%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.8

MERR

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

KENN

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MERR		KENN
294	Total yards	369
215	Passing yards	196
79	Rushing yards	173
16	First downs	21
8-16	3rd down	5-12
1-3	4th down	2-2
13/25	Comp/Att	21/31
8.6	Yards per pass	6.3
2.1	Yards per rush	5.4
0	Turnovers	1
12-83	Penalties	12-102
36:48	Possession	23:47

Fourth downs

17 calls

MERR

5/8 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

KENN

6/8 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 8:29 MERR go for it on 4th & 15 at MERR 36. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.19 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MERR 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →KENN 6/10 scoring drives

MERRUncateg8 pl, 48 yds· own 7Q1

KENNPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 45Q0

MERRDOWNS10 pl, 45 yds· own 3Q1

KENNPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· opp 48Q2

MERRPUNT8 pl, 33 yds· own 3Q2

KENNTD13 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2

MERRPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 24Q2

KENNEND9 pl, 55 yds· own 20Q2

KENNPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· opp 47Q3

MERRPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 12Q3

KENNTD4 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q3

MERRPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 18Q3

KENNTD4 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q3

MERRMISS8 pl, 45 yds· own 22Q3

KENNFG8 pl, 47 yds· own 33Q3

MERRTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

KENNTD7 pl, 24 yds· own 40Q4

KENNFG9 pl, 24 yds· midfieldQ4

MERREND7 pl, 33 yds· own 17Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:55KENNBritton Williams 44 Yd Field Goal 13–27
• Q4 7:13MERRRJ Chapman 85 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–24
• Q4 10:04MERRAyden Pereira 1 Yd Run (Carlton Thai Kick)7–24
• Q3 1:07KENNBritton Williams 38 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q3 7:07KENNAmari Odom 12 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–21
• Q3 9:47KENNGabriel Benyard 7 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
• Q2 4:45KENNDexter Williams II 4 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →