Auburn
4-6·SEC· Elo 1660
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| AUB | 14 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 62 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MERC ahead, below = AUB ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
AUB up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Mercer 17, Auburn 62.
Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had AUB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Elijah Melendez 41 Yd Interception Return (Alex McPherson Kick)
(08:22) Shotgun #9 D.Knight pass complete deep middle to #4 M.Simmons caught at MER50, for 91 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:08, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)
(14:58) Shotgun #9 D.Knight rush right for 75 yards gain to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:45, 1ST DOWN #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #44 R.Hughes)
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