Mercer vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Mercer

0017

Auburn4-6

▸0062

Final

Jordan-Hare Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MERC	14	3	0	0	17
AUB	14	21	14	13	62

MERCTeam statsAUB

338Total yards547

223Pass270

115Rush277

19First downs21

8-193rd down7-11

3Turnovers0

37:20Possession22:40

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:11AUBJackson Arnold 56 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)17–62
• Q4 8:24AUBAlex McPherson 49 Yd Field Goal 17–55
• Q4 12:03AUBAlex McPherson 47 Yd Field Goal 17–52
• Q3 8:08AUBMalcolm Simmons 91 Yd pass from Deuce Knight (Alex McPherson Kick)17–49
• Q3 11:46AUBElijah Melendez 41 Yd Interception Return (Alex McPherson Kick)17–42
• Q2 0:03AUBCam Coleman 10 Yd pass from Deuce Knight (Alex McPherson Kick)17–35
• Q2 1:15AUBDeuce Knight 20 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)17–28
• Q2 4:09MERCReice Griffith 41 Yd Field Goal 17–21
• Q2 8:00AUBDeuce Knight 9 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–21
• Q1 0:28AUBDeuce Knight 51 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–14
• Q1 2:59MERCAdjatay Dabbs 8 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Reice Griffith Kick)14–7
• Q1 10:52MERCCJ Miller 1 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:45AUBDeuce Knight 75 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

AUB −26.5

Against the number

AUB covered

line AUB −26.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MERC aheadAUB ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MERC ahead, below = AUB ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

AUB −26.5

Closing total

50.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MERC 17 – 62 AUB

Leaders

Mercer

• PassBraden Atkinson 20/33, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushCJ Miller 14 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
• RecBrayden Smith 5 REC, 76 YDS

Auburn

• PassDeuce Knight 15/20, 239 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDeuce Knight 9 CAR, 162 YDS, 4 TD
• RecMalcolm Simmons 5 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

137

Points / snap

0.58

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

AUB up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

AUB went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7

Fourth downs

11 calls

MERC gave up 0.6 points to the model on fourth down.MERC 4/6 · AUB 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Mercer vs. Auburn?

Mercer 17, Auburn 62.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MERC

AUB

39%

Success rate

53%

0.12

EPA / pass

0.57

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.63

34%

Early-down success

52%

46%

Pass success

57%

33%

Rush success

50%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

28%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

49%

Pass rate

48%

6.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.4

MERC

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

AUB

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MERC		AUB
338	Total yards	547
223	Passing yards	270
115	Rushing yards	277
19	First downs	21
8-19	3rd down	7-11
1-1	4th down	0-0
21/36	Comp/Att	18/25
6.2	Yards per pass	10.8
2.8	Yards per rush	8.9
3	Turnovers	0
2-15	Penalties	4-40
37:20	Possession	22:40

Fourth downs

11 calls

MERC

4/6 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

AUB

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 0:31 MERC punt on 4th & 2 at MERC 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MERC 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →AUB 9/11 scoring drives

AUBTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MERCTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

AUBPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 27Q1

MERCTD13 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

AUBTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MERCPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1

AUBTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

MERCFG10 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q2

AUBTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

MERCINT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

AUBTD4 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q2

MERCEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

MERCTD6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3

MERCPUNT6 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q3

AUBTD1 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q3

MERCPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3

AUBPUNT8 pl, 39 yds· own 10Q3

MERCPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 10Q3

AUBFG7 pl, 19 yds· opp 48Q3

MERCFUM3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q4

AUBFG4 pl, -12 yds· opp 19Q4

MERCPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4

AUBTD3 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4

MERCEND10 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:11AUBJackson Arnold 56 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)17–62
• Q4 8:24AUBAlex McPherson 49 Yd Field Goal 17–55
• Q4 12:03AUBAlex McPherson 47 Yd Field Goal 17–52
• Q3 8:08AUBMalcolm Simmons 91 Yd pass from Deuce Knight (Alex McPherson Kick)17–49
• Q3 11:46AUBElijah Melendez 41 Yd Interception Return (Alex McPherson Kick)17–42
• Q2 0:03AUBCam Coleman 10 Yd pass from Deuce Knight (Alex McPherson Kick)17–35
• Q2 1:15AUBDeuce Knight 20 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)17–28
• Q2 4:09MERCReice Griffith 41 Yd Field Goal 17–21
• Q2 8:00AUBDeuce Knight 9 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–21
• Q1 0:28AUBDeuce Knight 51 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–14
• Q1 2:59MERCAdjatay Dabbs 8 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Reice Griffith Kick)14–7
• Q1 10:52MERCCJ Miller 1 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:45AUBDeuce Knight 75 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →