| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| NCSU | 14 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1525, MEM Elo 1620) on a neutral field. That projects NCSU +3.8 (39% to win) — 8.3 points of value on MEM versus the market line of -4.5.
NCSU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Memphis 7, NC State 31.
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Wesley Grimes 31 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Scott rush middle for 35 yards gain to the Mep40 (#5 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWN
(02:38) Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush left for 9 yards loss to the Mep43 fumbled by #22 F.Peasant at NC St.45 forced by #25 J.Adedire recovered by NC St. #90 J.Victor at Mep43, End Of Play
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