| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 55 |
| FAU | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (FAU Elo 1231, MEM Elo 1659) plus home-field advantage. That projects FAU +14.7 (14% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MEM ahead, below = FAU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- MEM pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge FAU.
- MEM rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge MEM.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. MEM pass defense (0.37 allowed) — edge MEM.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MEM up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic?
Memphis 55, Florida Atlantic 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.