Sat, Sep 27, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 55 |
| FAU | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FAU Elo 1231, MEM Elo 1659) plus home-field advantage. That projects FAU +14.7 (14% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MEM ahead, below = FAU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
MEM up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Memphis 55, Florida Atlantic 26.
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 90 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 50 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST down
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