Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsFAU
- Q4 1:04MEMBrendon Lewis 15 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)55–26
- Q4 2:02MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)48–26
- Q4 4:54MEMGianni Spetic 25 Yd Field Goal 41–26
- Q4 9:32MEMCortez Braham Jr. 73 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–26
- Q4 10:20FAUXavier Terrell 1 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)31–26
- Q4 14:55MEMCortez Braham Jr. 18 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)31–19
- Q3 4:29FAUGarrison Smith 29 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q3 9:57MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 90 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–16
- Q2 0:22MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)17–16
- Q2 2:18FAUGarrison Smith 27 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 9:44FAUJayshon Platt 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–13
- Q1 3:08MEMGianni Spetic 52 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:10FAUCaden Veltkamp 1 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:42MEMBrendon Lewis 18 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBrendon Lewis 13/19, 196 YDS, 2 TD
- RushGreg Desrosiers Jr. 19 CAR, 204 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 6 REC, 127 YDS, 2 TD
- PassCaden Veltkamp 31/50, 318 YDS
- RushCaden Veltkamp 8 CAR, 28 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEaston Messer 9 REC, 131 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic?
Memphis 55, Florida Atlantic 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| MEM | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 492 | Total yards | 397 |
| 196 | Passing yards | 322 |
| 296 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-19 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 13/19 | Comp/Att | 32/51 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 10-62 |
| 31:12 | Possession | 28:48 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:11 FAU go for it on 4th & 7 at FAU 24. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:04MEMBrendon Lewis 15 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)55–26
- Q4 2:02MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)48–26
- Q4 4:54MEMGianni Spetic 25 Yd Field Goal 41–26
- Q4 9:32MEMCortez Braham Jr. 73 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–26
- Q4 10:20FAUXavier Terrell 1 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)31–26
- Q4 14:55MEMCortez Braham Jr. 18 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)31–19
- Q3 4:29FAUGarrison Smith 29 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q3 9:57MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 90 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)24–16
- Q2 0:22MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)17–16
- Q2 2:18FAUGarrison Smith 27 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 9:44FAUJayshon Platt 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–13
- Q1 3:08MEMGianni Spetic 52 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:10FAUCaden Veltkamp 1 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:42MEMBrendon Lewis 18 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1231, MEM Elo 1659 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU +14.7 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MEM | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#61) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#103) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | -1 / +12 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →