Massachusetts vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 11:04IOWAKJ Parker 2 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Drew Stevens Kick)7–47
- Q3 2:58IOWADrew Stevens 27 Yd Field Goal 7–40
- Q3 12:39IOWAKaden Wetjen 95 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)7–37
- Q2 0:26IOWAMark Gronowski 13 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–30
- Q2 9:50IOWADrew Stevens 54 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 11:50MASSGrant Jordan 6 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)7–20
- Q1 2:08IOWAKaden Wetjen 20 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)0–20
- Q1 7:41IOWASeth Anderson 3 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 13:29IOWASeth Anderson 20 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IOWA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassAJ Hairston Jr 4/8, 56 YDS
- RushRocko Griffin 10 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecJacquon Gibson 5 REC, 37 YDS
- PassMark Gronowski 16/24, 179 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNathan McNeil 10 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecSam Phillips 3 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Iowa?
Massachusetts 7, Iowa 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| MASS | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 119 | Total yards | 435 |
| 93 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 201 |
| 8 | First downs | 22 |
| 0-10 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/22 | Comp/Att | 21/31 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 27:56 | Possession | 32:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:10 IOWA punt on 4th & 4 at MASS 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:04IOWAKJ Parker 2 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Drew Stevens Kick)7–47
- Q3 2:58IOWADrew Stevens 27 Yd Field Goal 7–40
- Q3 12:39IOWAKaden Wetjen 95 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)7–37
- Q2 0:26IOWAMark Gronowski 13 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–30
- Q2 9:50IOWADrew Stevens 54 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 11:50MASSGrant Jordan 6 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)7–20
- Q1 2:08IOWAKaden Wetjen 20 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)0–20
- Q1 7:41IOWASeth Anderson 3 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 13:29IOWASeth Anderson 20 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1680, MASS Elo 1101 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -25.6 (94% to win) — 9.9 points clear of MASS's market line of -35.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| -40.3 (#136) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#24) |
| -22 / +18 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 3.71 | allowed / drive | 1.35 |
| 43% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →