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Massachusetts vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 13, 11:30 PM
Kinnick Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| IOWA | 20 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
IOWA 1680
MASS 1101
Projected spread
IOWA -25.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
IOWA
97% to win
Market spread
IOWA -35.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MASS
9.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
IOWA · market 98%
Our model blends Elo ratings (IOWA Elo 1680, MASS Elo 1101) plus home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -25.6 (97% to win) — 9.9 points of value on MASS versus the market line of -35.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
IOWA (top)MASS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IOWA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MASS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedIOWA
Offense
-0.01
PPA / play
0.1734%
Success rate
44%1.23
Explosiveness
1.122.17
Pts / opportunity
4.4460%
Power success
81%Defense
0.28
PPA allowed / play
0.0848%
Success rate allowed
39%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.139%
Havoc rate
17%11%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- IOWA pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MASS pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MASS.
- MASS pass offense (0.02 PPA) vs. IOWA pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge IOWA.
- MASS rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. IOWA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge IOWA.
Drive-by-drive
MASS 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →IOWA 7/10 scoring drives
IOWATD3 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1
IOWATD7 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
IOWATD7 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1
IOWAPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 48Q1
MASSTD4 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q2
IOWAFG6 pl, 30 yds· own 34Q2
MASSPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q2
IOWAMISS4 pl, 2 yds· opp 22Q2
MASSDOWNS8 pl, 29 yds· own 20Q2
IOWATD7 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2
MASSEND1 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
MASSTD5 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3
MASSPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
IOWAFG16 pl, 61 yds· own 30Q3
MASSDOWNS7 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q3
IOWATD10 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
MASSPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q4
IOWADOWNS11 pl, 66 yds· own 23Q4
MASSEND5 pl, 15 yds· own 11Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
IOWA up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
IOWA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Iowa?
Massachusetts 7, Iowa 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had IOWA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.