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Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 11:00 PM
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 21 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 42 |
| MTSU | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MTSU 1188
MRSH 1508
Projected spread
MTSU +10.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
MRSH
78% to win
Market spread
MTSU +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MRSH
7.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
22%
MTSU · market 45%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MTSU Elo 1188, MRSH Elo 1508) plus home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +10.4 (22% to win) — 7.9 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of +2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MTSU (top)MRSH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MTSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MRSH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMTSU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.1645%
Success rate
43%1.16
Explosiveness
1.223.89
Pts / opportunity
3.2063%
Power success
65%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.2239%
Success rate allowed
45%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.2716%
Havoc rate
16%22%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MRSH pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MRSH.
- MTSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. MRSH rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- MRSH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
Drive-by-drive
MRSH 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MTSU 5/11 scoring drives
MRSHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
MTSUINT2 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q1
MRSHTD7 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1
MTSUTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MRSHTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MTSUTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MRSHTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
MRSHPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 23Q2
MTSUFG7 pl, 49 yds· own 19Q2
MRSHFUM6 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q2
MTSUFG11 pl, 45 yds· own 35Q2
MRSHPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q2
MTSUPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3
MRSHPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 1Q3
MTSUTD5 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3
MRSHTD12 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q4
MRSHTD7 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4
MTSUPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 10Q4
MRSHTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4
MTSUDOWNS5 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q4
MRSHEND7 pl, 20 yds· own 49Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MTSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
MTSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee?
Marshall 42, Middle Tennessee 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MRSH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.