Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 4:38MRSHMichael Allen 11 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)42–28
- Q4 10:12MRSHDe'Andre Tamarez 24 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)35–28
- Q4 14:54MRSHToby Payne 4 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)28–28
- Q3 5:54MTSUNicholas Vattiato 3 Yd Run (Hunter Tipton Pass to Nicholas Vattiato for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q2 1:37MTSUJacob Hathaway 38 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q2 9:36MTSUJacob Hathaway 50 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q1 1:05MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 2 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)21–14
- Q1 6:03MTSUAmorion Walker 41 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:51MRSHDemarcus Lacey 68 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:57MTSUNahzae Cox 3 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:47MRSHToby Payne 3 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MTSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MRSH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 5.0
- MTSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 18/22, 261 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMichael Allen 21 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDemarcus Lacey 5 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNicholas Vattiato 19/32, 299 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJekail Middlebrook 6 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecNahzae Cox 6 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMTSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:54MRSH +34%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
- Q3 5:54MTSU +33%
Nicholas Vattiato 3 Yd Run (Hunter Tipton Pass to Nicholas Vattiato for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 10:12MRSH +26%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 24 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
- Q1 1:05MRSH +14%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
- Q1 6:03MTSU +14%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 41 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)
- Q1 7:57MTSU +13%
N. Vattiato pass to N. Cox for 3 yds for a TD (J. Hathaway KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee?
Marshall 42, Middle Tennessee 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
| MRSH | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 448 | Total yards | 373 |
| 261 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 74 |
| 27 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/22 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-62 | Penalties | 12-111 |
| 36:47 | Possession | 23:13 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:02 MRSH punt on 4th & 5 at MTSU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:38MRSHMichael Allen 11 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)42–28
- Q4 10:12MRSHDe'Andre Tamarez 24 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)35–28
- Q4 14:54MRSHToby Payne 4 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)28–28
- Q3 5:54MTSUNicholas Vattiato 3 Yd Run (Hunter Tipton Pass to Nicholas Vattiato for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q2 1:37MTSUJacob Hathaway 38 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q2 9:36MTSUJacob Hathaway 50 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q1 1:05MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 2 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)21–14
- Q1 6:03MTSUAmorion Walker 41 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:51MRSHDemarcus Lacey 68 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:57MTSUNahzae Cox 3 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:47MRSHToby Payne 3 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1188, MRSH Elo 1508 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +10.4 (26% to win) — 7.9 points clear of MRSH's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 5–5 · 30% have been one-possession games
| MRSH | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7 (#71) | CORE overall | -15.9 (#113) |
| +0 / +3 | offense / defense | -5 / +11 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.66 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →