Maine vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Maine0-1

0017

Georgia Southern1-2

▸0045

Final

Allen E. Paulson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MAIN	7	7	3	0	17
GASO	7	10	14	14	45

MAINTeam statsGASO

248Total yards516

139Pass310

109Rush206

17First downs28

1-123rd down9-15

2Turnovers2

31:30Possession28:30

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:50GASOJamarian Samuel 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–45
• Q4 14:01GASOCamden Brown 12 Yd pass from OJ Arnold (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–38
• Q3 3:26GASODalen Cobb 25 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–31
• Q3 5:59MAINSamuel Tremblay 33 Yd Field Goal 17–24
• Q3 10:43GASOWeston Bryan 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–24
• Q2 1:07MAINDevin Vaught 76 Yd Interception Return (Samuel Tremblay Kick)14–17
• Q2 5:56GASODalen Cobb 3 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–17
• Q2 11:24GASOTripp Bryant 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q1 2:11GASOOJ Arnold 3 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–7
• Q1 11:28MAINCarter Peevy 27 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

GASO −22

Against the number

GASO covered

line GASO −22

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MAIN aheadGASO ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MAIN ahead, below = GASO ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

GASO −22

Closing total

57.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MAIN 17 – 45 GASO

Leaders

Maine

• PassCarter Peevy 13/22, 88 YDS
• RushSincere Baines 7 CAR, 41 YDS
• RecRashawn Marshall 4 REC, 25 YDS

Georgia Southern

• PassJC French IV 19/31, 253 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushOJ Arnold 13 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCamden Brown 6 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

141

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

GASO up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

GASO went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Fourth downs

16 calls

MAIN gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.MAIN 8/10 · GASO 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Maine vs. Georgia Southern?

Maine 17, Georgia Southern 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MAIN

GASO

34%

Success rate

57%

-0.10

EPA / pass

0.20

0.08

EPA / rush

0.33

40%

Early-down success

53%

30%

Pass success

54%

41%

Rush success

60%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

58%

Pass rate

48%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.3

MAIN

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

GASO

5.3 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MAIN		GASO
248	Total yards	516
139	Passing yards	310
109	Rushing yards	206
17	First downs	28
1-12	3rd down	9-15
2-6	4th down	0-0
19/34	Comp/Att	22/37
4.1	Yards per pass	8.4
3.6	Yards per rush	5.2
2	Turnovers	2
3-12	Penalties	8-70
31:30	Possession	28:30

Fourth downs

16 calls

MAIN

8/10 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

GASO

2/3 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 1:14 MAIN punt on 4th & 1 at MAIN 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MAIN 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →GASO 8/13 scoring drives

GASOPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q1

MAINTD5 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

GASOFUM3 pl, 22 yds· own 28Q1

MAINDOWNS5 pl, 18 yds· midfieldQ1

GASOTD14 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

MAINPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1

GASOFG11 pl, 69 yds· own 27Q2

MAINPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 29Q2

GASOTD7 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

MAINDOWNS7 pl, 31 yds· own 30Q2

GASOTD5 pl, 34 yds· own 39Q2

GASOMISS9 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q2

MAINPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3

GASOTD4 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q3

MAINFG11 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q3

GASOTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

MAINPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 15Q3

GASOPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· own 38Q3

GASOTD1 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q4

MAINDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· own 35Q4

GASOTD9 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q4

MAININT14 pl, 56 yds· own 35Q4

GASOPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 20Q4

MAINEND4 pl, -8 yds· own 46Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:50GASOJamarian Samuel 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–45
• Q4 14:01GASOCamden Brown 12 Yd pass from OJ Arnold (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–38
• Q3 3:26GASODalen Cobb 25 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–31
• Q3 5:59MAINSamuel Tremblay 33 Yd Field Goal 17–24
• Q3 10:43GASOWeston Bryan 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–24
• Q2 1:07MAINDevin Vaught 76 Yd Interception Return (Samuel Tremblay Kick)14–17
• Q2 5:56GASODalen Cobb 3 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–17
• Q2 11:24GASOTripp Bryant 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q1 2:11GASOOJ Arnold 3 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–7
• Q1 11:28MAINCarter Peevy 27 Yd Run (Samuel Tremblay Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →