LSU
SEC· Elo 1690
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| OU | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OU Elo 1824, LSU Elo 1690) plus home-field advantage. That projects OU -7.8 (72% to win) — 3.7 points of value on LSU versus the market line of -11.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
LSU 13, Oklahoma 17.
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(11:50) Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted by #22 P.Bowen at OU00, Touchback
End of 1st quarter.
Isaiah Sategna III 58 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)
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