LSU vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsOU
- Q4 4:16OUIsaiah Sategna III 58 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)13–17
- Q4 7:56LSUDamian Ramos 43 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 1:47OUDeion Burks 45 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)10–10
- Q3 11:21LSUZavion Thomas 1 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)10–3
- Q2 13:35LSUDamian Ramos 25 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:31OUTate Sandell 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.7 vs 3rd & 8.1
- OU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassMichael Van Buren Jr. 14/25, 96 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCaden Durham 6 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecZavion Thomas 3 REC, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJohn Mateer 23/38, 318 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushTory Blaylock 11 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecIsaiah Sategna III 9 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:16OU +50%
Isaiah Sategna III 58 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)
- Q3 1:47OU +31%
No Huddle #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #4 D.Burks caught at LSU47, for 45 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 11:21LSU +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 Z.Thomas caught at OU06, for 1 yard to the OU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 5:04LSU +25%
#90 G.Chadwick punt 49 yards to the OU16 fair catch by #5 I.Sategna III at OU16
- Q4 7:56LSU +21%
#34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD
- Q4 5:04OU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #12 J.Kanak caught at OU20, for 9 yards to the OU25 (#42 D.Keys)
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Oklahoma?
LSU 13, Oklahoma 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
| LSU | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 198 | Total yards | 393 |
| 113 | Passing yards | 318 |
| 85 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 9 | First downs | 14 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 23/38 |
| 4.3 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 8-60 |
| 29:19 | Possession | 30:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:41 OU punt on 4th & 3 at LSU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:16OUIsaiah Sategna III 58 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)13–17
- Q4 7:56LSUDamian Ramos 43 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 1:47OUDeion Burks 45 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)10–10
- Q3 11:21LSUZavion Thomas 1 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)10–3
- Q2 13:35LSUDamian Ramos 25 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:31OUTate Sandell 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1824, LSU Elo 1690 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -7.8 (71% to win) — 3.7 points clear of LSU's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LSU | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.1 (#45) | CORE overall | +17.8 (#21) |
| -3 / -11 | offense / defense | -2 / -19 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 1.22 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →