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LSU vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Nov 9, 12:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| ALA | 3 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ALA 1978
LSU 1694
Projected spread
ALA -13.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
ALA
85% to win
Market spread
ALA -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
ALA
3.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
85%
ALA · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ALA Elo 1978, LSU Elo 1694) plus home-field advantage. That projects ALA -13.8 (85% to win) — 3.8 points of value on ALA versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ALA (top)LSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ALA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedALA
Offense
0.06
PPA / play
0.2039%
Success rate
43%1.22
Explosiveness
1.273.35
Pts / opportunity
4.0464%
Power success
67%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.0839%
Success rate allowed
38%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.2417%
Havoc rate
18%25%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- ALA pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. LSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge ALA.
- LSU rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. ALA rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ALA.
- LSU pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ALA pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge LSU.
Drive-by-drive
LSU 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ALA 4/11 scoring drives
ALADOWNS8 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q1
LSUMISS10 pl, 48 yds· own 39Q1
ALAPUNT4 pl, 33 yds· own 20Q1
LSUFUM3 pl, 17 yds· own 7Q1
ALAFG4 pl, -2 yds· opp 24Q1
LSUFG9 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1
ALATD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
LSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 15Q2
ALAMISS9 pl, 51 yds· own 40Q2
LSUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2
ALATD3 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2
LSUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
LSUFG11 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q3
ALAPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 18Q3
LSUPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 17Q3
ALAFUM6 pl, 25 yds· own 13Q3
LSUFG9 pl, 18 yds· opp 38Q4
ALAPUNT5 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q4
LSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 2Q4
ALAFG6 pl, 29 yds· own 45Q4
LSUFUM4 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4
ALAEND7 pl, 8 yds· opp 26Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ALA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
ALA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Alabama?
LSU 9, Alabama 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ALA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.