LSU vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsALA
- Q4 4:25ALAConor Talty 44 Yd Field Goal 9–20
- Q4 10:28LSUDamian Ramos 37 Yd Field Goal 9–17
- Q3 8:54LSUDamian Ramos 44 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 0:22ALARyan Williams 13 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)3–17
- Q2 9:25ALADaniel Hill 4 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)3–10
- Q2 12:27LSUDamian Ramos 37 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:20ALAConor Talty 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ALA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 7.4
- ALA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 18/21, 121 YDS
- RushHarlem Berry 12 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecZavion Thomas 5 REC, 49 YDS
- PassTy Simpson 21/35, 277 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDaniel Hill 7 CAR, 21 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGermie Bernard 3 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:25ALA +13%
Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 12:27LSU +9%
#34 D.Ramos field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD
- Q2 0:22ALA +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at LSU00, for 13 yards to the LSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:20ALA +7%
#31 C.Talty field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Alabama?
LSU 9, Alabama 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| LSU | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 232 | Total yards | 344 |
| 173 | Passing yards | 288 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 56 |
| 13 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/32 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-74 | Penalties | 2-30 |
| 31:49 | Possession | 28:11 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:25 ALA field goal on 4th & 2 at LSU 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:25ALAConor Talty 44 Yd Field Goal 9–20
- Q4 10:28LSUDamian Ramos 37 Yd Field Goal 9–17
- Q3 8:54LSUDamian Ramos 44 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 0:22ALARyan Williams 13 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)3–17
- Q2 9:25ALADaniel Hill 4 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)3–10
- Q2 12:27LSUDamian Ramos 37 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:20ALAConor Talty 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1978, LSU Elo 1694 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -13.8 (82% to win) — 3.8 points clear of ALA's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 58–26–5 · Alabama has won 3 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| LSU | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.1 (#45) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#14) |
| -3 / -11 | offense / defense | +7 / -13 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →