Long Island University vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Long Island University

00

Florida

▸0055

Final

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LONG	0	0	0	0	0
FLA	14	24	10	7	55

LONGTeam statsFLA

86Total yards451

49Pass251

37Rush200

2First downs28

1-123rd down7-13

2Turnovers0

25:33Possession34:27

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:25FLATaylor Spierto 11 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Trey Smack Kick)0–55
• Q3 2:03FLATony Livingston 4 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Trey Smack Kick)0–48
• Q3 10:53FLATrey Smack 41 Yd Field Goal 0–41
• Q2 0:10FLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 8 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–38
• Q2 3:26FLAHayden Hansen 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–31
• Q2 7:04FLAEugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–24
• Q2 14:47FLATrey Smack 56 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 9:29FLAJadan Baugh 4 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:41FLABryce Thornton 37 Yd Fumble Return (Trey Smack Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

FLA −46.5

Against the number

FLA covered

line FLA −46.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FLA 100%50%LONG 100%

Kickoff142 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

FLA (top)LONG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FLA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

FLA −46.5

Closing total

56.5

Model line

—

Actual result

LONG 0 – 55 FLA

Leaders

Long Island University

• PassLuca Stanzani 1/3, 28 YDS
• RushKam Ingram 4 CAR, 14 YDS
• RecDeion Richardson 2 REC, 37 YDS

Florida

• PassTramell Jones Jr. 12/18, 131 YDS, 2 TD
• RushJadan Baugh 9 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
• RecVernell Brown III 3 REC, 79 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FLA up 48 entering the 4th quarter. Across 83 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

FLA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOregon State vs UC Davis55-7WLSU vs Army62-0WArizona State vs Wyoming48-7WSouth Carolina State vs Delaware State69-35WTexas State vs Southern Miss58-3

Fourth downs

17 calls

LONG gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.LONG 9/11 · FLA 5/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Long Island University vs. Florida?

Long Island University 0, Florida 55.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (FLA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LONG

FLA

12%

Success rate

55%

-0.30

EPA / pass

0.38

-0.25

EPA / rush

0.34

14%

Early-down success

56%

9%

Pass success

49%

13%

Rush success

62%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

36%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

26%

Pass rate

51%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

LONG

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

42 scrimmage snaps

FLA

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

76 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LONG		FLA
86	Total yards	451
49	Passing yards	251
37	Rushing yards	200
2	First downs	28
1-12	3rd down	7-13
0-1	4th down	0-0
4/11	Comp/Att	27/36
4.5	Yards per pass	7.0
1.2	Yards per rush	5.3
2	Turnovers	0
12-100	Penalties	0-0
25:33	Possession	34:27

Fourth downs

17 calls

LONG

9/11 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

FLA

5/6 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 1:50 LONG punt on 4th & 1 at LONG 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LONG 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →FLA 8/12 scoring drives

LONGTD3 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

FLATD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

FLAMISS8 pl, 22 yds· opp 44Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 22Q1

FLAFG4 pl, 0 yds· opp 38Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

FLAMISS6 pl, 37 yds· own 42Q2

LONGFUM2 pl, -11 yds· own 21Q2

FLATD3 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q2

LONGPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

FLATD6 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2

LONGPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

FLATD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

LONGEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

FLAFG8 pl, 43 yds· own 33Q3

LONGPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

FLAPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 34Q3

LONGPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 11Q3

FLATD6 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

LONGPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3

FLAMISS10 pl, 20 yds· own 41Q4

LONGDOWNS7 pl, 39 yds· own 39Q4

FLATD13 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4

LONGEND3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:25FLATaylor Spierto 11 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Trey Smack Kick)0–55
• Q3 2:03FLATony Livingston 4 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Trey Smack Kick)0–48
• Q3 10:53FLATrey Smack 41 Yd Field Goal 0–41
• Q2 0:10FLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 8 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–38
• Q2 3:26FLAHayden Hansen 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–31
• Q2 7:04FLAEugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–24
• Q2 14:47FLATrey Smack 56 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 9:29FLAJadan Baugh 4 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:41FLABryce Thornton 37 Yd Fumble Return (Trey Smack Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →