| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LOU | 7 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LOU Elo 1631, UK Elo 1578) plus home-field advantage. That projects LOU -4.5 (63% to win) — 5.0 points of value on LOU versus the market line of +0.5.
LOU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kentucky 0, Louisville 41.
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:22) #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #86 J.Stewart caught at KEN26, for 43 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
(10:28) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short left to #3 D.Collins caught at KEN04, for 11 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:22, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
(00:36) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #2 T.Hurry caught at KEN34, for 17 yards to the KEN31 (#6 J.Hardaway), 1ST DOWN
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