Kentucky vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsLOU
- Q4 5:23LOUJaleel Skinner 4 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–41
- Q4 10:22LOUDacari Collins 11 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–34
- Q3 8:23LOUShaun Boykins Jr. 5 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–27
- Q2 1:45LOUCooper Ranvier 24 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 8:18LOUJacob Stewart 43 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:56LOUCooper Ranvier 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 4:44LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCutter Boley 13/26, 100 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDante Dowdell 6 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecHardley Gilmore IV 1 REC, 26 YDS
- PassMiller Moss 12/20, 182 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBraxton Jennings 20 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecJacob Stewart 1 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Louisville?
Kentucky 0, Louisville 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| UK | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 140 | Total yards | 440 |
| 100 | Passing yards | 182 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 258 |
| 10 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 13/26 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 3.8 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-54 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 23:32 | Possession | 36:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:41 LOU punt on 4th & 11 at UK 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:23LOUJaleel Skinner 4 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–41
- Q4 10:22LOUDacari Collins 11 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–34
- Q3 8:23LOUShaun Boykins Jr. 5 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–27
- Q2 1:45LOUCooper Ranvier 24 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 8:18LOUJacob Stewart 43 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–17
- Q2 14:56LOUCooper Ranvier 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 4:44LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1631, UK Elo 1578 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -4.5 (63% to win) — 5.0 points clear of LOU's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #107 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →The series is level at 17–17 · Louisville has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| UK | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#52) | CORE overall | +18.6 (#18) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →