Huskie StadiumConference gameClosing line: NIU -5 · KENT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 3 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 35 |
| NIU | 7 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 31 |
Team stats
KENTthis game · better side highlightedNIU
438
Total yards
334207
Passing yards
27231
Rushing yards
30720
First downs
213-9 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NIU 1260
KENT 974
Projected spread
NIU -13.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
NIU
85% to win
Market spread
NIU -5
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
8.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
85%
NIU · market 65%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1260, KENT Elo 974) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU -13.8 (85% to win) — 8.8 points of value on NIU versus the market line of -5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NIU (top)KENT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NIU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. KENT pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge KENT.
- KENT rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge NIU.
- KENT pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge KENT.
Drive-by-drive
KENT 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NIU 5/10 scoring drives
KENTDOWNS9 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q1
NIUFUM2 pl, 14 yds· own 26Q1
KENTFG6 pl, 23 yds· opp 40Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NIU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
NIU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Northern Illinois?
Kent State 35, Northern Illinois 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had NIU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.