Kent State vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Kent State4-7

▸

Northern Illinois3-8

Final

Huskie StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
KENT	3	14	3	15	35
NIU	7	14	0	10	31

KENTTeam statsNIU

438Total yards334

207Pass27

231Rush307

20First downs21

3-93rd down6-12

2Turnovers1

28:09Possession31:51

Q4 4:11KENTGavin Garcia 26 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)35–31
Q4 10:23KENTCade Wolford 31 Yd Run (Dru DeShields Pass to Dashawn Martin for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
Q4 13:52NIUChavon Wright 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)20–31
Q4 14:16NIUAndrew Glass 33 Yd Field Goal 20–24
Q3 6:20KENTWill Hryszko 28 Yd Field Goal 20–21
Q2 0:47NIUJalen Macon 9 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)17–21
Q2 4:15KENTDashawn Martin 17 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)17–14
Q2 7:20NIUChavon Wright 38 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)10–14
Q2 12:17KENTTerik Mulder 5 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)10–7
Q1 2:12NIUJalen Macon 2 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)3–7
Q1 8:49KENTWill Hryszko 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Model line

NIU −13.8

market NIU −5

Biggest swing

KENT +58%

Q4 4:11

Against the number

KENT covered

line NIU −5

NIU favored ↑50%KENT favored ↓

GridpexKENT 100%

Closing line

NIU −5

Closing total

44.5

Model line

NIU −13.8

Actual result

KENT 35 – 31 NIU

DraftKings, liveNIU −4.50.5 toward KENTtotal 44.5

Kent State

PassDru DeShields 11/22, 207 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushGavin Garcia 24 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
RecDa'Shawn Martin 3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD

Northern Illinois

PassJalen Macon 5/10, 27 YDS
RushChavon Wright 30 CAR, 185 YDS, 2 TD
RecJason Fowler 2 REC, 14 YDS

27.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.50

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NIU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

53%

NIU went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LDavidson vs VMI7-12 WNorth Alabama vs Chattanooga41-27 WAlabama State vs Southern28-20 WUCLA vs Coastal Carolina27-13 LBoise State vs UCF22-24

Q4 4:11KENT +58%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 26 yards gain to the N IU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q4 10:23KENT +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Wolford rush right for 31 yards gain to the N IU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #1 D.Martin pass attempt Successful
Q4 13:52NIU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KENT00 TOUCHDOWN
Q4 4:04NIU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the N IU26 (#15 S.Abuhamdeh)
Q2 4:15KENT +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #1 D.Martin caught at N IU00, for 17 yards to the N IU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 0:47NIU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush left for 9 yards gain to the KENT00 TOUCHDOWN

FAQ

What was the final score of Kent State vs. Northern Illinois?

Kent State 35, Northern Illinois 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

KENT

NIU

50%

Success rate

56%

0.18

EPA / pass

-0.15

0.41

EPA / rush

0.23

50%

Early-down success

58%

46%

Pass success

40%

53%

Rush success

59%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

Stuffed rush rate

15%

42%

Pass rate

14%

5.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.9

KENT

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

NIU

3.9 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

KENT		NIU
438	Total yards	334
207	Passing yards	27
231	Rushing yards	307
20	First downs	21
3-9	3rd down	6-12
2-3	4th down	1-2
11/22	Comp/Att	5/10
9.4	Yards per pass	2.7
6.4	Yards per rush	5.3
2	Turnovers	1
3-20	Penalties	3-32
28:09	Possession	31:51

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

NIU 1260

KENT 974

Projected spread

NIU -13.8

incl. home edge

Model pick

NIU

82% to win

Market spread

NIU -5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

NIU

8.8 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

82%

NIU · market 65%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1260, KENT Elo 974 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -13.8 (82% to win) — 8.8 points clear of NIU's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

KENT2025 season · national rank shownNIU

295.4128th

Total yards / game

284.4133rd

5.2110th

Yards / play

4.6131st

197.199th

Passing yards / game

98.8134th

98.3130th

Rushing yards / game

185.629th

27.6%135th

3rd down %

31.8%129th

428.3125th

Yards allowed / game

357.757th

44.6%121st

3rd down % allowed

42.9%111th

-386th

Turnover margin

+254th

6.172nd

Penalties / game

4.312th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series30 meetings since 1966

Northern Illinois leads 23–7 · 30% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

KENT		NIU
-19.8 (#125)	CORE overall	-22.4 (#129)
-5 / +14	offense / defense	-15 / +8
1.65	points / drive	1.59
2.87	allowed / drive	2.42
34%	three-and-outs	31%
-4	pass over expected	-19

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Fri, Nov 28, 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Huskie Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: NIU -13.8

The Model's Pick

Northern Illinois

to win · 82%

✗ Miss

Projected spreadNIU -13.8

Market65%

Game Leaders

Kent State

Pass Dru Deshields11/22, 207 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rush Gavin Garcia24 car, 151 yds, 1 TD
Rec Dashawn Martin3 rec, 91 yds, 1 TD

Northern Illinois

Pass Jalen Macon5/10, 27 yds, 0 TD
Rush Chavon Wright30 car, 185 yds, 2 TD
Rec Jason Fowler2 rec, 14 yds

Biggest Plays

Kent State+4.4 EPA
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #1 D.Martin caught at KENT22, for 59 yards to the N IU25 (#3 J.Finley), 1ST DOWN
Kent State+4.1 EPA
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Wolford rush right for 31 yards gain to the N IU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:23, 1ST DOWN #1 D.Martin pass attempt Successful
Northern Illinois+3.3 EPA
(07:30) Shotgun #10 C.Wright rush middle for 38 yards gain to the KENT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:20, 1ST DOWN #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro)

KENTTeam statsNIU

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Kent State vs. Northern Illinois?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Kent State vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap

KENTTeam statsNIU

How the model called it

What was the final score of Kent State vs. Northern Illinois?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups