Kent State vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsFSU
- Q4 8:20FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 37 Yd Run (Brunno Reus Kick)10–66
- Q4 12:41KENTWill Hryszko 38 Yd Field Goal 10–59
- Q3 5:02FSULanden Thomas 2 Yd pass from Brock Glenn (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–59
- Q3 10:04FSUKam Davis 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–52
- Q2 0:00FSUJake Weinberg 25 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q2 2:16FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 15 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–42
- Q1 0:00FSUGavin Sawchuk 2 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–35
- Q1 3:18FSUMicahi Danzy 64 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–28
- Q1 7:33FSUTommy Castellanos 10 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–21
- Q1 8:08KENTDashawn Martin 75 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:19FSUTommy Castellanos 12 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:39FSUGavin Sawchuk 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassDru DeShields 9/18, 129 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushGavin Garcia 14 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecDa'Shawn Martin 3 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassThomas Castellanos 10/13, 205 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGavin Sawchuk 11 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMicahi Danzy 2 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 41 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Florida State?
Kent State 10, Florida State 66.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
| KENT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 206 | Total yards | 775 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 277 |
| 43 | Rushing yards | 498 |
| 12 | First downs | 37 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 9-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/27 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 9.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-32 | Penalties | 5-59 |
| 25:29 | Possession | 34:31 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:20FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 37 Yd Run (Brunno Reus Kick)10–66
- Q4 12:41KENTWill Hryszko 38 Yd Field Goal 10–59
- Q3 5:02FSULanden Thomas 2 Yd pass from Brock Glenn (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–59
- Q3 10:04FSUKam Davis 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–52
- Q2 0:00FSUJake Weinberg 25 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q2 2:16FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 15 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–42
- Q1 0:00FSUGavin Sawchuk 2 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–35
- Q1 3:18FSUMicahi Danzy 64 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–28
- Q1 7:33FSUTommy Castellanos 10 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–21
- Q1 8:08KENTDashawn Martin 75 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:19FSUTommy Castellanos 12 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:39FSUGavin Sawchuk 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1477, KENT Elo 959 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -23.1 (93% to win) — 21.9 points clear of KENT's market line of -45. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.8 (#125) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#29) |
| -5 / +14 | offense / defense | +13 / -1 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 2.87 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →