Doak Campbell StadiumClosing line: FSU -45 · FSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| FSU | 35 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 66 |
Team stats
KENTthis game · better side highlightedFSU
206
Total yards
775163
Passing yards
27743
Rushing yards
49812
First downs
373-14 · 21%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FSU 1477
KENT 959
Projected spread
FSU -23.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
FSU
96% to win
Market spread
FSU -45
sportsbook line
Model edge
KENT
21.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
FSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (FSU Elo 1477, KENT Elo 959) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU -23.1 (96% to win) — 21.9 points of value on KENT versus the market line of -45.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FSU (top)KENT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- KENT rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. FSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge FSU.
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. KENT rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge FSU.
- FSU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. KENT pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FSU.
Drive-by-drive
KENT 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →FSU 10/12 scoring drives
FSUTD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
KENTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
FSUTD8 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FSU up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 41 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
FSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Florida State?
Kent State 10, Florida State 66.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.