Kennesaw State vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENNTeam statsLIB
- 2OT 0:00KENNChristian Moss 25 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)48–42
- OT 0:00KENNGabriel Benyard 25 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)42–42
- OT 0:00LIBEvan Dickens 25 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)35–42
- Q4 3:28LIBVaughn Blue 59 Yd pass from Michael Merdinger (Jay Billingsley Kick)35–35
- Q4 5:35KENNColeman Bennett 1 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)35–28
- Q4 12:17KENNAmari Odom 9 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)28–28
- Q4 14:46LIBEvan Dickens 95 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)21–28
- Q3 2:23LIBEvan Dickens 5 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)21–21
- Q3 12:55KENNColeman Bennett 30 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:00LIBMichael Merdinger 2 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:49KENNClayton Coppock 5 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:27LIBEvan Dickens 6 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:29KENNGabriel Benyard 12 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAmari Odom 14/23, 240 YDS, 4 TD
- RushColeman Bennett 14 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGabriel Benyard 4 REC, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMichael Merdinger 12/21, 212 YDS, 1 TD
- RushEvan Dickens 43 CAR, 267 YDS, 4 TD
- RecVaughn Blue 2 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:05KENN +93%
Kneel down by #2 A.Odom at KSU18 for loss of 2 yards
- OT 0:00LIB +90%
Evan Dickens 25 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)
- Q4 0:01LIB +66%
#43 J.Billingsley field goal attempt from 32 yards NO GOOD
- Q4 3:28LIB +57%
Vaughn Blue 59 Yd pass from Michael Merdinger (Jay Billingsley Kick)
- OT 0:00KENN +48%
Gabriel Benyard 25 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)
- Q4 5:35KENN +38%
Coleman Bennett 1 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Liberty?
Kennesaw State 48, Liberty 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KENN | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 452 | Total yards | 503 |
| 240 | Passing yards | 212 |
| 212 | Rushing yards | 291 |
| 25 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 14/23 | Comp/Att | 12/22 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-49 | Penalties | 9-97 |
| 27:03 | Possession | 32:57 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:03 LIB punt on 4th & 2 at LIB 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00KENNChristian Moss 25 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)48–42
- OT 0:00KENNGabriel Benyard 25 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)42–42
- OT 0:00LIBEvan Dickens 25 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)35–42
- Q4 3:28LIBVaughn Blue 59 Yd pass from Michael Merdinger (Jay Billingsley Kick)35–35
- Q4 5:35KENNColeman Bennett 1 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)35–28
- Q4 12:17KENNAmari Odom 9 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)28–28
- Q4 14:46LIBEvan Dickens 95 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)21–28
- Q3 2:23LIBEvan Dickens 5 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)21–21
- Q3 12:55KENNColeman Bennett 30 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:00LIBMichael Merdinger 2 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:49KENNClayton Coppock 5 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:27LIBEvan Dickens 6 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:29KENNGabriel Benyard 12 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1457, KENN Elo 1385 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -5.3 (65% to win) — 7.8 points clear of LIB's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#76) | CORE overall | -7.1 (#88) |
| +2 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / +9 |
| 2.14 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →