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Kennesaw State vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 29, 8:30 PM
Williams Stadium (VA)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 48 |
| LIB | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LIB 1457
KENN 1385
Projected spread
LIB -5.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
LIB
65% to win
Market spread
LIB +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
LIB
7.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
LIB · market 44%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LIB Elo 1457, KENN Elo 1385) plus home-field advantage. That projects LIB -5.3 (65% to win) — 7.8 points of value on LIB versus the market line of +2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LIB (top)KENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LIB 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KENN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedLIB
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.1741%
Success rate
44%1.35
Explosiveness
1.202.95
Pts / opportunity
3.6880%
Power success
73%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.2142%
Success rate allowed
42%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.3017%
Havoc rate
13%19%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- KENN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. LIB rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge LIB.
- KENN pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. LIB pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge KENN.
- LIB rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge LIB.
Drive-by-drive
KENN 7/13 scoring drives← own end zone →LIB 6/13 scoring drives
LIBFUM12 pl, 18 yds· own 27Q1
KENNTD7 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1
LIBTD8 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1
KENNTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
LIBPUNT3 pl, -35 yds· opp 25Q2
KENNPUNT8 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q2
LIBPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 6Q2
KENNDOWNS6 pl, 21 yds· own 29Q2
LIBTD10 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2
KENNTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3
LIBPUNT6 pl, -26 yds· opp 25Q3
KENNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 14Q3
LIBTD10 pl, 51 yds· own 41Q3
KENNPUNT3 pl, 17 yds· own 36Q3
LIBTD2 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q3
KENNTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
LIBPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 39Q4
KENNTD10 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q4
LIBTD5 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q4
KENNPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 27Q4
LIBMISS10 pl, 57 yds· own 29Q4
KENNEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q4
LIBTD1 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT
KENNTD1 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT
KENNTD1 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT
LIBDOWNS4 pl, -4 yds· opp 25OT
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
LIB win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Liberty?
Kennesaw State 48, Liberty 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had LIB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.