| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 34 |
| ORE | 13 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 51 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORE Elo 2087, JMU Elo 1927) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -8.8 (74% to win) — 12.2 points of value on JMU versus the market line of -21.
ORE up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
James Madison 34, Oregon 51.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jayden Limar 15 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gage Hurych Kick)
(11:39) #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 56 yards gain to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:33, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 49 yards gain to the ORE01 (#22 J.Canady), 1ST DOWN
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