James Madison vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsORE
- Q4 1:05JMUAlonza Barnett III 1 Yd Run (Alonza Barnett III Pass to Nick DeGennaro for Two-Point Conversion)34–51
- Q4 4:22OREAtticus Sappington 48 Yd Field Goal 26–51
- Q4 10:26JMULacota Dippre 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–48
- Q3 1:15JMUGeorge Pettaway 24 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)20–48
- Q3 7:05OREJayden Limar 15 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gage Hurych Kick)13–48
- Q3 10:24OREMalik Benson 45 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)13–41
- Q3 12:08JMUNick DeGennaro 47 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)13–34
- Q2 0:06JMUMorgan Suarez 38 Yd Field Goal 6–34
- Q2 4:22OREMalik Benson 46 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)3–34
- Q2 9:18OREJeremiah McClellan 20 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–27
- Q2 11:33OREDierre Hill Jr. 56 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–20
- Q1 2:37OREDante Moore 5 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–13
- Q1 5:14JMUMorgan Suarez 30 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 13:17OREJamari Johnson 41 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassAlonza Barnett III 23/48, 273 YDS, 2 TD
- RushWayne Knight 17 CAR, 110 YDS
- RecNick DeGennaro 5 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDante Moore 19/27, 313 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushJordon Davison 10 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecMalik Benson 5 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Oregon?
James Madison 34, Oregon 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| JMU | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 509 | Total yards | 514 |
| 323 | Passing yards | 313 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 201 |
| 22 | First downs | 22 |
| 9-22 | 3rd down | 3-7 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/49 | Comp/Att | 19/27 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 11.6 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 7.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 13-113 | Penalties | 5-71 |
| 35:50 | Possession | 24:10 |
- Q4 1:05JMUAlonza Barnett III 1 Yd Run (Alonza Barnett III Pass to Nick DeGennaro for Two-Point Conversion)34–51
- Q4 4:22OREAtticus Sappington 48 Yd Field Goal 26–51
- Q4 10:26JMULacota Dippre 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–48
- Q3 1:15JMUGeorge Pettaway 24 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)20–48
- Q3 7:05OREJayden Limar 15 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Gage Hurych Kick)13–48
- Q3 10:24OREMalik Benson 45 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)13–41
- Q3 12:08JMUNick DeGennaro 47 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)13–34
- Q2 0:06JMUMorgan Suarez 38 Yd Field Goal 6–34
- Q2 4:22OREMalik Benson 46 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)3–34
- Q2 9:18OREJeremiah McClellan 20 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–27
- Q2 11:33OREDierre Hill Jr. 56 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–20
- Q1 2:37OREDante Moore 5 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–13
- Q1 5:14JMUMorgan Suarez 30 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 13:17OREJamari Johnson 41 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 2087, JMU Elo 1927 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -8.8 (73% to win) — 12.2 points clear of JMU's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JMU | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#13) | CORE overall | +34.6 (#4) |
| +5 / -16 | offense / defense | +19 / -16 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →