James Madison vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsCCU
- Q4 4:02JMUMichael Scott 32 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Morgan Suarez Kick)59–10
- Q4 9:25JMUKJ Flowe 34 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)52–10
- Q4 10:40JMUJobi Malary 73 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)45–10
- Q4 14:55JMUIsaiah Alston 9 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)38–10
- Q3 5:17JMULacota Dippre 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Alonza Barnett III Pass to Nick DeGennaro for Two-Point Conversion)31–10
- Q3 10:15JMUMorgan Suarez 21 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q2 2:59CCUBryson Graves 12 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)20–10
- Q2 7:57CCUKian Afrookhteh 34 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 11:21JMUMorgan Suarez 47 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 0:31JMUBraeden Wisloski 39 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)17–0
- Q1 5:56JMUMorgan Suarez 33 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 10:36JMUAlonza Barnett III 3 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAlonza Barnett III 15/21, 207 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJobi Malary 12 CAR, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraeden Wisloski 4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTad Hudson 16/38, 148 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJa'Vin Simpkins 6 CAR, 5 YDS
- RecKarmello English 2 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Coastal Carolina?
James Madison 59, Coastal Carolina 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| JMU | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 525 | Total yards | 170 |
| 239 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 286 | Rushing yards | -5 |
| 24 | First downs | 10 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 2-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/22 | Comp/Att | 18/40 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | -0.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 36:04 | Possession | 23:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:15 JMU field goal on 4th & 3 at CCU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:02JMUMichael Scott 32 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Morgan Suarez Kick)59–10
- Q4 9:25JMUKJ Flowe 34 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)52–10
- Q4 10:40JMUJobi Malary 73 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)45–10
- Q4 14:55JMUIsaiah Alston 9 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)38–10
- Q3 5:17JMULacota Dippre 25 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Alonza Barnett III Pass to Nick DeGennaro for Two-Point Conversion)31–10
- Q3 10:15JMUMorgan Suarez 21 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q2 2:59CCUBryson Graves 12 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)20–10
- Q2 7:57CCUKian Afrookhteh 34 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 11:21JMUMorgan Suarez 47 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 0:31JMUBraeden Wisloski 39 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)17–0
- Q1 5:56JMUMorgan Suarez 33 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 10:36JMUAlonza Barnett III 3 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1228, JMU Elo 1874 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU +23.4 (8% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JMU | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#13) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#115) |
| +5 / -16 | offense / defense | -8 / +8 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →