Brooks Stadium (SC)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 17 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 59 |
| CCU | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CCU 1228
JMU 1874
Projected spread
CCU +23.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
JMU
96% to win
Market spread
CCU +24
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
4%
CCU · market 7%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CCU Elo 1228, JMU Elo 1874) plus home-field advantage. That projects CCU +23.4 (4% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CCU (top)JMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CCU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. JMU rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge CCU.
- JMU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge JMU.
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. JMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
JMU 9/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CCU 3/14 scoring drives
CCUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1
JMUTD6 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1
CCUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
JMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Coastal Carolina?
James Madison 59, Coastal Carolina 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.