Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JXSTTeam statsGASO
- Q4 6:23GASOOJ Arnold 6 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)34–41
- Q4 11:19GASOTripp Bryant 43 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q3 0:22JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 13 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)34–31
- Q3 9:34JXSTGarrison Rippa 33 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q2 0:24JXSTGavin Wimsatt 6 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)24–31
- Q2 5:54GASOOJ Arnold 32 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–31
- Q2 10:38JXSTGarrison Rippa 30 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 14:56GASOCamden Brown 18 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–24
- Q1 1:44GASOTripp Bryant 37 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 3:42JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 56 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Garrison Rippa Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:22GASODalen Cobb 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:34JXSTGavin Wimsatt 10 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:04GASOJC French IV 2 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- JXST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassGavin Wimsatt 16/24, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Cook 21 CAR, 120 YDS
- RecBrock Rechsteiner 4 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJC French IV 16/24, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- RushOJ Arnold 16 CAR, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDalen Cobb 6 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:23GASO +40%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q3 0:22JXST +30%
Brock Rechsteiner run for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
- Q4 11:19GASO +26%
Tripp Bryant 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:24JXST +22%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 6 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
- Q2 5:54GASO +21%
OJ Arnold run for 32 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q2 14:56GASO +20%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern?
Jacksonville State 34, Georgia Southern 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| JXST | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 410 |
| 183 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 219 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 5-59 |
| 30:30 | Possession | 29:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:49 GASO punt on 4th & 3 at GASO 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:23GASOOJ Arnold 6 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)34–41
- Q4 11:19GASOTripp Bryant 43 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q3 0:22JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 13 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)34–31
- Q3 9:34JXSTGarrison Rippa 33 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q2 0:24JXSTGavin Wimsatt 6 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)24–31
- Q2 5:54GASOOJ Arnold 32 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–31
- Q2 10:38JXSTGarrison Rippa 30 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 14:56GASOCamden Brown 18 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–24
- Q1 1:44GASOTripp Bryant 37 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 3:42JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 56 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Garrison Rippa Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:22GASODalen Cobb 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:34JXSTGavin Wimsatt 10 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:04GASOJC French IV 2 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1328, JXST Elo 1642 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO +10.2 (26% to win) — 13.2 points clear of JXST's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#99) | CORE overall | -14.7 (#105) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | +2 / +17 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 3.06 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -12 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →