Allen E. Paulson Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 14 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| GASO | 17 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 41 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GASO 1328
JXST 1642
Projected spread
GASO +10.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
77% to win
Market spread
GASO -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
13.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
23%
GASO · market 61%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GASO Elo 1328, JXST Elo 1642) plus home-field advantage. That projects GASO +10.2 (23% to win) — 13.2 points of value on JXST versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GASO (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GASO 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge GASO.
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
JXST 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →GASO 6/11 scoring drives
GASOTD9 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
JXSTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JXST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
JXST went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern?
Jacksonville State 34, Georgia Southern 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had JXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.