| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| USC | 0 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USC Elo 1911, IOWA Elo 1912) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -2.4 (57% to win) — 4.1 points of value on IOWA versus the market line of -6.5.
IOWA up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Iowa 21, USC 26.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:56) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA34, for 32 yards to the USC38 (#23 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWN
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA46, for 35 yards to the IOWA46 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWN
(14:19) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #5 J.Gill caught at USC32, for 44 yards to the USC11 (#7 K.Ramsey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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