Iowa vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IOWATeam statsUSC
- Q4 13:36USCBryan Jackson 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)21–26
- Q3 3:33USCMakai Lemon 12 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–19
- Q3 11:11USCRyon Sayeri 28 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:39USCRyon Sayeri 40 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 3:24IOWAMark Gronowski 5 Yd pass from Reece Vander Zee (Drew Stevens Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:15USCBryan Jackson 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:12IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:26IOWADayton Howard 2 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IOWA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.0 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassMark Gronowski 12/19, 132 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKamari Moulton 15 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecDJ Vonnahme 4 REC, 59 YDS
- PassJayden Maiava 23/32, 254 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKing Miller 19 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecMakai Lemon 10 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:36USC +32%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:33USC +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA00, for 12 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #14 J.Maiava pass attempt failed
- Q1 11:26IOWA +18%
#11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #7 D.Howard caught at USC00, for 2 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC Offside declined
- Q2 9:15USC +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:24IOWA +17%
Shotgun #15 R.Vander Zee pass complete short right to #11 M.Gronowski caught at USC00, for 5 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:12IOWA +16%
#11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa vs. USC?
Iowa 21, USC 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| IOWA | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total yards | 360 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 183 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 17 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/20 | Comp/Att | 23/32 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 30:44 | Possession | 29:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:47 IOWA punt on 4th & 3 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:36USCBryan Jackson 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)21–26
- Q3 3:33USCMakai Lemon 12 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–19
- Q3 11:11USCRyon Sayeri 28 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:39USCRyon Sayeri 40 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 3:24IOWAMark Gronowski 5 Yd pass from Reece Vander Zee (Drew Stevens Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:15USCBryan Jackson 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:12IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:26IOWADayton Howard 2 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1911, IOWA Elo 1912 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -2.4 (57% to win) — 4.1 points clear of IOWA's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUSC leads 8–3 · 36% have been one-possession games
| IOWA | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.7 (#24) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#10) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | +18 / -4 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 3.53 |
| 1.35 | allowed / drive | 2.14 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →