Boone Pickens StadiumConference gameClosing line: ISU +-14 · OKST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
| OKST | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
Team stats
ISUthis game · better side highlightedOKST
344
Total yards
229113
Passing yards
202231
Rushing yards
2717
First downs
124-14 · 29%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OKST 1084
ISU 1655
Projected spread
OKST +20.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
ISU
93% to win
Market spread
OKST +14
sportsbook line
Model edge
ISU
6.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
7%
OKST · market 17%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OKST Elo 1084, ISU Elo 1655) plus home-field advantage. That projects OKST +20.4 (7% to win) — 6.4 points of value on ISU versus the market line of +14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
OKST (top)ISU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OKST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- OKST pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. ISU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. OKST pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge OKST.
- OKST rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge ISU.
Drive-by-drive
ISU 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →OKST 3/12 scoring drives
OKSTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q1
ISUPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· own 37Q1
OKSTPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 8Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ISU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ISU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State?
Iowa State 20, Oklahoma State 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ISU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.