Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 3:50OKSTLogan Ward 41 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q4 6:33ISUKyle Konrardy 34 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 10:39ISUA. Sama III run for 40 yds, for a TD (K. Konrardy KICK)17–7
- Q3 14:00OKSTLogan Ward 28 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 1:21OKSTTrent Howland 8 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)10–7
- Q2 8:11ISUR. Becht pass to C. Sowell for 16 yds, for a TD (K. Konrardy KICK)10–0
- Q1 1:35ISUKyle Konrardy 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OKST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ISU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassRocco Becht 9/19, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCarson Hansen 25 CAR, 111 YDS
- RecChase Sowell 4 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- PassZane Flores 19/30, 166 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTrent Howland 14 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTerrill Davis 5 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:21OKST +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 T.Howland rush right for 8 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 10:39ISU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush middle for 40 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 8:11ISU +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #0 C.Sowell caught at OSU00, for 16 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Holding declined
- Q4 10:06ISU +5%
#90 W.Pahl punt 69 yards to the ISU09
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State?
Iowa State 20, Oklahoma State 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
| ISU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Total yards | 229 |
| 113 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 233 | Rushing yards | 27 |
| 17 | First downs | 11 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/19 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 1.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-54 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 34:24 | Possession | 25:36 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:06 OKST punt on 4th & 2 at OKST 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:50OKSTLogan Ward 41 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q4 6:33ISUKyle Konrardy 34 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 10:39ISUA. Sama III run for 40 yds, for a TD (K. Konrardy KICK)17–7
- Q3 14:00OKSTLogan Ward 28 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 1:21OKSTTrent Howland 8 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)10–7
- Q2 8:11ISUR. Becht pass to C. Sowell for 16 yds, for a TD (K. Konrardy KICK)10–0
- Q1 1:35ISUKyle Konrardy 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1084, ISU Elo 1655 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +20.4 (10% to win) — 6.4 points clear of ISU's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma State leads 34–22–3 · Iowa State has won 2 straight · 54% have been one-possession games
| ISU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#51) | CORE overall | -22.9 (#130) |
| +2 / -4 | offense / defense | -12 / +11 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.02 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.92 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →