Iowa State vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsARST
- Q4 8:34ISUAbu Sama III 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)24–16
- Q4 11:53ARSTClune Van Andel 40 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q3 9:08ARSTClune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 0:11ISUDominic Overby 27 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Rocco Becht Pass to Carson Hansen for Two-Point Conversion)17–10
- Q2 0:39ARSTJaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)9–10
- Q2 13:11ARSTClune Van Andel 45 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 2:42ISURocco Becht 10 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy PAT failed)9–0
- Q1 9:07ISUKyle Konrardy 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ISU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassRocco Becht 14/25, 265 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCarson Hansen 18 CAR, 116 YDS
- RecXavier Townsend 3 REC, 92 YDS
- PassJaylen Raynor 19/33, 222 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaylen Raynor 16 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChauncy Cobb 7 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:34ISU +33%
Abu Sama III 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)
- Q3 9:08ISU +17%
Clune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 0:11ARST +12%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for no gain to the ISU 35
- Q2 0:39ARST +12%
Jaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
- Q4 3:45ISU +11%
Carson Hansen run for 13 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST down
- Q4 6:33ARST +10%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 8 yds to the ISU 41
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Arkansas State?
Iowa State 24, Arkansas State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
| ISU | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 452 | Total yards | 382 |
| 265 | Passing yards | 222 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 160 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/25 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 10.6 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-31 | Penalties | 10-90 |
| 25:19 | Possession | 34:41 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:09 ARST punt on 4th & 1 at ARST 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:34ISUAbu Sama III 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)24–16
- Q4 11:53ARSTClune Van Andel 40 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q3 9:08ARSTClune Van Andel 36 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 0:11ISUDominic Overby 27 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Rocco Becht Pass to Carson Hansen for Two-Point Conversion)17–10
- Q2 0:39ARSTJaylen Raynor 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)9–10
- Q2 13:11ARSTClune Van Andel 45 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 2:42ISURocco Becht 10 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy PAT failed)9–0
- Q1 9:07ISUKyle Konrardy 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1244, ISU Elo 1621 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST +12.7 (21% to win) — 8.3 points clear of ARST's market line of +21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ISU | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#51) | CORE overall | -16.8 (#118) |
| +2 / -4 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →