Centennial Bank StadiumClosing line: ISU +-21 · ARST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 9 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
| ARST | 0 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
Team stats
ISUthis game · better side highlightedARST
452
Total yards
382265
Passing yards
222187
Rushing yards
16020
First downs
205-11 · 45%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARST 1244
ISU 1621
Projected spread
ARST +12.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
ISU
83% to win
Market spread
ARST +21
sportsbook line
Model edge
ARST
8.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
17%
ARST · market 10%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARST Elo 1244, ISU Elo 1621) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARST +12.7 (17% to win) — 8.3 points of value on ARST versus the market line of +21.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)ISU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ISU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ARST rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ISU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
Drive-by-drive
ISU 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 4/10 scoring drives
ISUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
ARSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 31Q1
ISUFG10 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ISU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
ISU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Arkansas State?
Iowa State 24, Arkansas State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ISU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.