Indiana
11-0·Big Ten· Elo 2142
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 7 | 21 | 21 | 7 | 56 |
| PUR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PUR Elo 1276, IU Elo 2142) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR +32.2 (1% to win) — 3.7 points of value on IU versus the market line of +28.5.
IU up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Indiana 56, Purdue 3.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:44) Shotgun #1 R.Hemby rush middle for 82 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:33, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
(09:38) Shotgun #16 A.Mendoza pass complete short right to #4 D.Chandler caught at IND39, for 65 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:29, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
(04:02) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep left to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at PUR15, for 43 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:52, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
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