Indiana vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IUTeam statsPUR
- Q4 9:29IUDavion Chandler 65 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)56–3
- Q3 0:46IUKhobie Martin 21 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)49–3
- Q3 4:02IUOmar Cooper Jr. 43 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)42–3
- Q3 7:37IUElijah Sarratt 17 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)35–3
- Q2 1:33IURoman Hemby 82 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)28–3
- Q2 3:40IUKaelon Black 16 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)21–3
- Q2 10:29IUFernando Mendoza 7 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:46PURSpencer Porath 22 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:03IUKaelon Black 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PUR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassFernando Mendoza 8/15, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRoman Hemby 12 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDavion Chandler 1 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRyan Browne 25/47, 238 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAntonio Harris 15 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecNitro Tuggle 5 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana vs. Purdue?
Indiana 56, Purdue 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| IU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 548 | Total yards | 282 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 238 |
| 355 | Rushing yards | 44 |
| 22 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-8 | 3rd down | 7-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 10/17 | Comp/Att | 25/47 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 9.6 | Yards per rush | 1.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 26:52 | Possession | 33:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:46 PUR field goal on 4th & 2 at IU 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:29IUDavion Chandler 65 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)56–3
- Q3 0:46IUKhobie Martin 21 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)49–3
- Q3 4:02IUOmar Cooper Jr. 43 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)42–3
- Q3 7:37IUElijah Sarratt 17 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)35–3
- Q2 1:33IURoman Hemby 82 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)28–3
- Q2 3:40IUKaelon Black 16 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)21–3
- Q2 10:29IUFernando Mendoza 7 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:46PURSpencer Porath 22 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:03IUKaelon Black 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1276, IU Elo 2142 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +32.2 (3% to win) — 3.7 points clear of IU's market line of +28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPurdue leads 75–44–6 · Indiana has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| IU | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +35.3 (#3) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#93) |
| +19 / -17 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
| 3.69 | points / drive | 1.57 |
| 0.94 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →