| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCA | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| UTSA | 10 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 48 |
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
UTSA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Incarnate Word 20, UTSA 48.
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTSA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Robert Henry Jr. 74 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 77 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
Josh Lorick pass intercepted Shad Banks Jr. return for 18 yds to the UTSA 32
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