Incarnate Word vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Incarnate Word

0020

UTSA0-2

▸0048

Final

Alamodome

	1	2	3	4	T
INCA	0	0	14	6	20
UTSA	10	14	14	10	48

INCATeam statsUTSA

357Total yards442

324Pass243

33Rush199

23First downs22

6-143rd down8-16

4Turnovers0

25:48Possession34:12

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:06UTSADevin McCuin 24 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–48
• Q4 6:19INCAChedon James 36 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–41
• Q4 9:19UTSAMichael Petro 31 Yd Field Goal 14–41
• Q3 7:55INCAChedon James 15 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Will Faris Kick)14–38
• Q3 12:04UTSAAJ Wilson 77 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)7–38
• Q3 12:51INCAChedon James 38 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Will Faris Kick)7–31
• Q3 13:40UTSARobert Henry Jr. 74 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)0–31
• Q2 8:03UTSADan Dishman 4 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–24
• Q2 9:23UTSARobert Henry Jr. 3 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)0–17
• Q1 5:28UTSAMichael Petro 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 10:46UTSADevin McCuin 13 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UTSA −21

Against the number

UTSA covered

line UTSA −21

What the numbers say

• INCA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTSA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UTSA 100%50%INCA 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UTSA (top)INCA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UTSA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UTSA −21

Closing total

62.5

Model line

—

Actual result

INCA 20 – 48 UTSA

Leaders

Incarnate Word

• PassEJ Colson Jr. 17/24, 213 YDS, 3 TD
• RushJaylon Spears 5 CAR, 26 YDS
• RecChedon James 8 REC, 134 YDS, 3 TD

UTSA

• PassOwen McCown 30/36, 243 YDS, 4 TD
• RushRobert Henry Jr. 14 CAR, 144 YDS, 2 TD
• RecAJ Wilson 5 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

141

Points / snap

0.48

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UTSA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UTSA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Louisiana Tech38-14WIndiana vs Indiana State41-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg48-17WDuke vs Northwestern38-14WArkansas State vs Stony Brook31-7

Fourth downs

16 calls

UTSA gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.INCA 6/6 · UTSA 6/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Incarnate Word vs. UTSA?

Incarnate Word 20, UTSA 48.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

INCA

UTSA

42%

Success rate

47%

0.23

EPA / pass

0.48

-0.10

EPA / rush

0.22

44%

Early-down success

43%

44%

Pass success

50%

38%

Rush success

44%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

70%

Pass rate

54%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.8

INCA

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

UTSA

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

INCA		UTSA
357	Total yards	442
324	Passing yards	243
33	Rushing yards	199
23	First downs	22
6-14	3rd down	8-16
0-1	4th down	1-1
31/45	Comp/Att	30/36
7.2	Yards per pass	6.8
1.2	Yards per rush	5.9
4	Turnovers	0
8-88	Penalties	6-60
25:48	Possession	34:12

Fourth downs

16 calls

INCA

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

UTSA

6/7 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 1:38 UTSA punt on 4th & 6 at INCA 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

INCA 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →UTSA 7/14 scoring drives

INCAFUM5 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

UTSATD6 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q1

INCAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

UTSAFG8 pl, 67 yds· own 24Q1

INCAINT6 pl, 41 yds· own 12Q1

UTSAPUNT5 pl, 39 yds· own 4Q1

INCAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 4Q2

UTSATD8 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q2

INCAFUM3 pl, -1 yds· own 5Q2

UTSATD1 pl, 4 yds· opp 4Q2

INCAPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q2

UTSAPUNT9 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2

INCAPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 7Q2

UTSAEND4 pl, 13 yds· own 24Q2

UTSATD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

INCATD3 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3

UTSATD2 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q3

INCATD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

UTSAPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 16Q3

INCAINT6 pl, 33 yds· own 35Q3

UTSAPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 32Q3

INCADOWNS5 pl, 43 yds· own 12Q4

UTSAFG7 pl, 42 yds· own 45Q4

INCATD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

UTSATD4 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q4

INCAPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q4

UTSAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 23Q4

INCAEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 32Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:06UTSADevin McCuin 24 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–48
• Q4 6:19INCAChedon James 36 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–41
• Q4 9:19UTSAMichael Petro 31 Yd Field Goal 14–41
• Q3 7:55INCAChedon James 15 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Will Faris Kick)14–38
• Q3 12:04UTSAAJ Wilson 77 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)7–38
• Q3 12:51INCAChedon James 38 Yd pass from EJ Colson (Will Faris Kick)7–31
• Q3 13:40UTSARobert Henry Jr. 74 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)0–31
• Q2 8:03UTSADan Dishman 4 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–24
• Q2 9:23UTSARobert Henry Jr. 3 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)0–17
• Q1 5:28UTSAMichael Petro 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 10:46UTSADevin McCuin 13 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →