Illinois vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsIU
- Q4 6:38IUKhobie Martin 8 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)10–63
- Q4 14:09IUKhobie Martin 31 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)10–56
- Q3 5:02IUElijah Sarratt 5 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)10–49
- Q3 11:38IUKaelon Black 40 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)10–42
- Q2 0:00ILLDavid Olano 46 Yd Field Goal 10–35
- Q2 1:09IUElijah Sarratt 9 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:17IURiley Nowakowski 43 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:05IUE.J. Williams Jr. 11 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–21
- Q1 4:41IUOmar Cooper Jr. 11 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:24ILLCollin Dixon 59 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:26IUD'Angelo Ponds 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ILL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassLuke Altmyer 14/22, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKaden Feagin 5 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecCollin Dixon 4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- PassFernando Mendoza 21/23, 267 YDS, 5 TD
- RushKhobie Martin 12 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- RecElijah Sarratt 9 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Indiana?
Illinois 10, Indiana 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| ILL | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 161 | Total yards | 579 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 2 | Rushing yards | 312 |
| 9 | First downs | 31 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 8-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/25 | Comp/Att | 21/23 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 11.6 |
| 0.1 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 20:17 | Possession | 39:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:46 ILL punt on 4th & 3 at ILL 9. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.06 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:38IUKhobie Martin 8 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)10–63
- Q4 14:09IUKhobie Martin 31 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)10–56
- Q3 5:02IUElijah Sarratt 5 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)10–49
- Q3 11:38IUKaelon Black 40 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)10–42
- Q2 0:00ILLDavid Olano 46 Yd Field Goal 10–35
- Q2 1:09IUElijah Sarratt 9 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:17IURiley Nowakowski 43 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:05IUE.J. Williams Jr. 11 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–21
- Q1 4:41IUOmar Cooper Jr. 11 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:24ILLCollin Dixon 59 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:26IUD'Angelo Ponds 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1869, ILL Elo 1708 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU -8.8 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#125 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #32 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Illinois leads 46–26–2 · 36% have been one-possession games
| ILL | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.1 (#36) | CORE overall | +35.3 (#3) |
| +10 / -1 | offense / defense | +19 / -17 |
| 2.76 | points / drive | 3.69 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 0.94 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →