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Illinois vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 11:30 PM
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| IU | 14 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 63 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
IU 1869
ILL 1708
Projected spread
IU -8.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
IU
74% to win
Market spread
IU -7
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
IU · market 68%
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 1869, ILL Elo 1708) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -8.8 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
IU (top)ILL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ILL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedIU
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.3248%
Success rate
51%1.17
Explosiveness
1.184.21
Pts / opportunity
5.1373%
Power success
69%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.0345%
Success rate allowed
35%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.3215%
Havoc rate
23%19%
Stuff rate
30%Key matchups · Pro
- ILL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. IU pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge ILL.
- IU pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge IU.
- ILL rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. IU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge ILL.
Drive-by-drive
ILL 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →IU 8/11 scoring drives
ILLPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q1
IUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 19Q1
ILLTD3 pl, -3 yds· own 36Q1
ILLTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
IUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ILLPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q1
IUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 48Q1
ILLPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 2Q1
IUTD7 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q2
ILLPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2
IUTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
ILLPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2
IUTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
ILLEND8 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q2
IUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
ILLPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3
IUTD9 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3
ILLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3
IUTD8 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3
ILLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 22Q4
IUTD8 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4
ILLINT5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q4
IUEND7 pl, 45 yds· own 30Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
IU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
IU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Indiana?
Illinois 10, Indiana 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.