Idaho vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Idaho0-1
San José State0-2
▸Final
CEFCU Stadium
IDAHTeam statsSJSU
384Total yards420
232Pass222
152Rush198
22First downs15
9-183rd down7-10
1Turnovers1
39:01Possession20:59
- Q4 0:08SJSUDenis Lynch 48 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 5:21SJSUFloyd Chalk IV 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)28–28
- Q4 9:17IDAHNoah West-Baranco 18 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)28–21
- Q3 1:51SJSUFloyd Chalk IV 7 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)21–21
- Q3 5:11IDAHRyan Jezioro 15 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:55SJSUKyri Shoels 15 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:53SJSUJabari Bates 87 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)14–7
- Q2 7:12IDAHArt Williams 1 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:03IDAHJoshua Wood 1 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
SJSU −14
Against the number
IDAH covered
line SJSU −14
What the numbers say
- IDAH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SJSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.0
- IDAH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 40% success rate
Kickoff144 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
SJSU (top)IDAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SJSU 100%
Closing line
SJSU −14
Closing total
51.5
Model line
—
Actual result
IDAH 28 – 31 SJSU
Idaho
- PassJoshua Wood 18/32, 232 YDS, 2 TD
- RushArt Williams 18 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEmmerson Cortez-Menjivar 5 REC, 84 YDS
San José State
- PassWalker Eget 13/21, 222 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJabari Bates 11 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDanny Scudero 6 REC, 130 YDS
22.7sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
129
Points / snap
0.46
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
SJSU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Idaho vs. San José State?
Idaho 28, San José State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
IDAH
SJSU
40%
Success rate
56%
0.49
EPA / pass
0.44
0.16
EPA / rush
0.54
31%
Early-down success
54%
39%
Pass success
55%
40%
Rush success
58%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
15%
16%
Stuffed rush rate
27%
44%
Pass rate
46%
7.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.0
IDAH
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
81 scrimmage snaps
SJSU
5.0 yards to go on 3rd down
48 scrimmage snaps
| IDAH | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 420 |
| 232 | Passing yards | 222 |
| 152 | Rushing yards | 198 |
| 22 | First downs | 15 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 5-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 13/21 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 10.6 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 7.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-63 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 39:01 | Possession | 20:59 |
IDAH
8/9 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
SJSU
1/2 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 4:35 SJSU punt on 4th & 3 at IDAH 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishIDAH 4/9 scoring drives← own end zone →SJSU 5/9 scoring drives
SJSUFUM5 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q1
IDAHTD11 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q1
SJSUPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 14Q1
SJSUPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 32Q1
IDAHTD15 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
SJSUTD1 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
SJSUTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
IDAHMISS13 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q2
SJSUEND1 pl, 10 yds· own 20Q2
IDAHTD15 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3
SJSUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
IDAHTD11 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
SJSUTD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4
IDAHPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4
SJSUFG8 pl, 31 yds· own 39Q4
IDAHFUM1 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 0:08SJSUDenis Lynch 48 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 5:21SJSUFloyd Chalk IV 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)28–28
- Q4 9:17IDAHNoah West-Baranco 18 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)28–21
- Q3 1:51SJSUFloyd Chalk IV 7 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)21–21
- Q3 5:11IDAHRyan Jezioro 15 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:55SJSUKyri Shoels 15 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:53SJSUJabari Bates 87 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)14–7
- Q2 7:12IDAHArt Williams 1 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:03IDAHJoshua Wood 1 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series25 meetings since 1946
San José State leads 14–10–1 · San José State has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →