Houston vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsUCF
- Q4 2:31HOUEthan Sanchez 22 Yd Field Goal 30–27
- Q4 11:19HOUEthan Sanchez 30 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q3 1:06UCFNoe Ruelas 54 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 7:38HOUDean Connors 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–24
- Q2 0:00HOUEthan Sanchez 40 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 1:36UCFPhillip Dunnam 43 Yd Interception Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:05UCFJaden Nixon 15 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–17
- Q2 6:36HOULatreveon McCutchin 45 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:52HOUAmare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–10
- Q2 9:39UCFMyles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–10
- Q1 4:17UCFNoe Ruelas 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassConner Weigman 20/31, 223 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushConner Weigman 22 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecAmare Thomas 5 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTayven Jackson 15/29, 136 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaden Nixon 11 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDylan Wade 6 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:31HOU +54%
#92 E.Sanchez field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD PENALTY HOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#66 M.Agnello) 15 yards from UCF00 to HOU20
- Q4 11:19HOU +27%
#92 E.Sanchez field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD
- Q3 7:38HOU +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #44 D.Connors caught at UCF10, for 9 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:06UCF +23%
#16 N.Ruelas field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD
- Q2 2:05UCF +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush left for 15 yards gain to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 6:36HOU +21%
Latreveon McCutchin 45 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. UCF?
Houston 30, UCF 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 282 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 210 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 26 | First downs | 14 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 15/30 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 34:38 | Possession | 25:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:01 UCF punt on 4th & 2 at HOU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:31HOUEthan Sanchez 22 Yd Field Goal 30–27
- Q4 11:19HOUEthan Sanchez 30 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q3 1:06UCFNoe Ruelas 54 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 7:38HOUDean Connors 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–24
- Q2 0:00HOUEthan Sanchez 40 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 1:36UCFPhillip Dunnam 43 Yd Interception Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:05UCFJaden Nixon 15 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–17
- Q2 6:36HOULatreveon McCutchin 45 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:52HOUAmare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–10
- Q2 9:39UCFMyles Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–10
- Q1 4:17UCFNoe Ruelas 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1537, HOU Elo 1467 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -5.2 (65% to win) — 3.7 points clear of UCF's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUCF leads 8–4 · 58% have been one-possession games
| HOU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#80) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →