Houston
7-2·Big 12· Elo 1467
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 30 |
| UCF | 3 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCF Elo 1537, HOU Elo 1467) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCF -5.2 (65% to win) — 3.7 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -1.5.
UCF up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Houston 30, UCF 27.
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UCF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Latreveon McCutchin 45 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass intercepted by #2 P.Dunnam at HOU43 #2 P.Dunnam return 43 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:36 #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs)
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #0 A.Thomas caught at UCF28, for 64 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:52, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UCF Holding declined #92 E.Sanchez kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #56 J.Garza)
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