Boone Pickens StadiumConference gameClosing line: HOU +-14.5 · HOU covered
Sat, Oct 11, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 10 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 39 |
| OKST | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OKST Elo 1128, HOU Elo 1456) plus home-field advantage. That projects OKST +10.7 (21% to win) — 3.8 points of value on OKST versus the market line of +14.5.
HOU up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Houston 39, Oklahoma State 17.
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had HOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Shamar Rigby pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 63 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)
Gavin Freeman 33 Yd pass from Noah Walters (Logan Ward Kick)
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 43 yds to the OKST 32 for a 1ST down
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