Houston vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 3:55OKSTGavin Freeman 33 Yd pass from Noah Walters (Logan Ward Kick)39–17
- Q4 7:43HOUEthan Sanchez 29 Yd Field Goal 39–10
- Q3 0:35HOUDean Connors 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)36–10
- Q3 8:27HOUEthan Sanchez 30 Yd Field Goal 30–10
- Q3 13:00HOUEthan Sanchez 48 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 3:20HOUHarvey Broussard III 14 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–10
- Q2 5:39HOUDean Connors 6 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–10
- Q2 11:08OKSTLogan Ward 37 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 0:45HOUEthan Sanchez 46 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 7:43HOUConner Weigman 3 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:48OKSTRodney Fields Jr. 63 Yd pass from Shamar Rigby (Logan Ward Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassConner Weigman 21/30, 306 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDean Connors 15 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAmare Thomas 7 REC, 157 YDS
- PassSam Jackson V 7/16, 84 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRodney Fields Jr. 14 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecRodney Fields Jr. 2 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:43HOU +17%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q1 12:48OKST +16%
Shamar Rigby pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 63 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)
- Q2 5:39HOU +16%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 6 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 3:20HOU +8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Harvey Broussard III for 14 yds for a TD Oklahoma State Penalty, substitution infraction (Yards) to the OKST 0 (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 11:08OKST +8%
Logan Ward 37 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 0:45HOU +7%
Ethan Sanchez 46 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Oklahoma State?
Houston 39, Oklahoma State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
| HOU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 485 | Total yards | 225 |
| 319 | Passing yards | 180 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 45 |
| 26 | First downs | 10 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/34 | Comp/Att | 9/20 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-69 | Penalties | 11-89 |
| 36:28 | Possession | 23:32 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:02 HOU go for it on 4th & 17 at OKST 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:55OKSTGavin Freeman 33 Yd pass from Noah Walters (Logan Ward Kick)39–17
- Q4 7:43HOUEthan Sanchez 29 Yd Field Goal 39–10
- Q3 0:35HOUDean Connors 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)36–10
- Q3 8:27HOUEthan Sanchez 30 Yd Field Goal 30–10
- Q3 13:00HOUEthan Sanchez 48 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 3:20HOUHarvey Broussard III 14 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–10
- Q2 5:39HOUDean Connors 6 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–10
- Q2 11:08OKSTLogan Ward 37 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 0:45HOUEthan Sanchez 46 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 7:43HOUConner Weigman 3 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:48OKSTRodney Fields Jr. 63 Yd pass from Shamar Rigby (Logan Ward Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1128, HOU Elo 1456 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +10.7 (25% to win) — 3.8 points clear of OKST's market line of +14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesHouston leads 11–10–1 · 50% have been one-possession games
| HOU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | -22.9 (#130) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | -12 / +11 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 1.02 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.92 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →