Hawai'i vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 1:16HAWKansei Matsuzawa 24 Yd Field Goal 38–45
- Q4 5:37SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)35–45
- Q4 9:32HAWJackson Harris 20 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)35–38
- Q3 0:04HAWLandon Sims 2 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)28–38
- Q3 9:02SJSUDanny Scudero 62 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)21–38
- Q3 9:46HAWLandon Sims 6 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)21–31
- Q2 0:27SJSUMathias Brown 24 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 3:29SJSUDanny Scudero 50 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q2 4:07HAWJackson Harris 68 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)14–21
- Q2 5:40SJSULamar Radcliffe 2 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:49SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 20 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:51SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 10 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:17HAWCam Barfield 1 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMicah Alejado 31/46, 367 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLandon Sims 13 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJackson Harris 6 REC, 134 YDS, 2 TD
- PassWalker Eget 20/40, 458 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLamar Radcliffe 10 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDanny Scudero 7 REC, 215 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:32HAW +29%
Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep right to #9 J.Harris caught at SJSU00, for 20 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:51SJSU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 10 yards gain to the UHM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plan…
- Q2 6:06SJSU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep right to #4 K.Shoels caught at UHM05, for 43 yards to the UHM02 (#14 J.Wilson-Jones), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 6:17HAW +19%
PENALTY SJSU False Start (#13 C.Hoch) 5 yards from UHM40 to UHM45. NO PLAY
- Q1 6:17HAW +19%
Shotgun #0 C.Barfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:49SJSU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 20 yards gain to the UHM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. San José State?
Hawai'i 38, San José State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
| HAW | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 496 | Total yards | 630 |
| 401 | Passing yards | 458 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 22 | First downs | 26 |
| 9-14 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 32/47 | Comp/Att | 20/40 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-80 | Penalties | 6-48 |
| 33:10 | Possession | 26:50 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:05 SJSU go for it on 4th & 10 at HAW 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:16HAWKansei Matsuzawa 24 Yd Field Goal 38–45
- Q4 5:37SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)35–45
- Q4 9:32HAWJackson Harris 20 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)35–38
- Q3 0:04HAWLandon Sims 2 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)28–38
- Q3 9:02SJSUDanny Scudero 62 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)21–38
- Q3 9:46HAWLandon Sims 6 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)21–31
- Q2 0:27SJSUMathias Brown 24 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 3:29SJSUDanny Scudero 50 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q2 4:07HAWJackson Harris 68 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)14–21
- Q2 5:40SJSULamar Radcliffe 2 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:49SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 20 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:51SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 10 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:17HAWCam Barfield 1 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1410, HAW Elo 1366 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -4.2 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan José State leads 22–21–1 · San José State has won 5 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| HAW | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 (#82) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#78) |
| +1 / +7 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 2.06 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →