Hawai'i
1-0·Mountain West· Elo 1258
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| ARIZ | 7 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARIZ Elo 1371, HAW Elo 1258) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -6.9 (70% to win) — 8.1 points of value on HAW versus the market line of -15.
ARIZ up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Hawai'i 6, Arizona 40.
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ARIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Quincy Craig run for 54 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
Luke Weaver pass intercepted Gavin Hunter return for 28 yds to the ARIZ 28
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Virdel Edwards II) to the HAW 47 for a 1ST down
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