Hawai'i vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 4:29ARIZIsmail Mahdi 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–40
- Q4 13:14ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 52 Yd Field Goal 6–34
- Q3 6:46ARIZNoah Fifita 10 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–31
- Q3 12:51ARIZSam Olson 5 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–24
- Q2 0:00HAWKansei Matsuzawa 41 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 4:31ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 35 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 12:26ARIZQuincy Craig 54 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:48HAWKansei Matsuzawa 34 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:11ARIZKedrick Reescano 13 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassMicah Alejado 18/31, 157 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLandon Sims 9 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecLandon Sims 3 REC, 48 YDS
- PassNoah Fifita 13/23, 161 YDS, 1 TD
- RushQuincy Craig 7 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrandon Phelps 2 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:11ARIZ +14%
Kedrick Reescano run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q2 12:26ARIZ +13%
Quincy Craig run for 54 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q3 12:51ARIZ +7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q1 4:48HAW +7%
Kansei Matsuzawa 34 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Arizona?
Hawai'i 6, Arizona 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
| HAW | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 290 | Total yards | 344 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 161 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 183 |
| 21 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 26/47 | Comp/Att | 13/23 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 8-54 |
| 35:44 | Possession | 24:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:45 ARIZ punt on 4th & 4 at HAW 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:29ARIZIsmail Mahdi 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–40
- Q4 13:14ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 52 Yd Field Goal 6–34
- Q3 6:46ARIZNoah Fifita 10 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–31
- Q3 12:51ARIZSam Olson 5 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)6–24
- Q2 0:00HAWKansei Matsuzawa 41 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 4:31ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 35 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 12:26ARIZQuincy Craig 54 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:48HAWKansei Matsuzawa 34 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:11ARIZKedrick Reescano 13 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1371, HAW Elo 1258 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -6.9 (69% to win) — 8.1 points clear of HAW's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| HAW | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 (#82) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#33) |
| +1 / +7 | offense / defense | +5 / -8 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.06 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →