Hawai'i vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsAF
- Q4 0:34HAWKansei Matsuzawa 25 Yd Field Goal 44–35
- Q4 4:30AFQuin Smith 34 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)41–35
- Q4 5:06HAWJackson Harris 74 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)41–28
- Q4 5:58AFKemper Hodges 2 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)34–28
- Q4 11:14HAWKansei Matsuzawa 39 Yd Field Goal 34–21
- Q4 14:04AFCade Harris 73 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)31–21
- Q4 14:55HAWCam Barfield 27 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)31–14
- Q3 2:44HAWLandon Sims 1 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)24–14
- Q3 12:33AFKade Frew 11 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)17–14
- Q2 3:49HAWKansei Matsuzawa 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 6:11HAWBrandon White 24 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:16AFBruin Fleischmann 5 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:25HAWJackson Harris 6 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMicah Alejado 35/47, 457 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLandon Sims 13 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJackson Harris 7 REC, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLiam Szarka 10/12, 278 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushLiam Szarka 17 CAR, 139 YDS
- RecCade Harris 3 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:44HAW +27%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q3 12:33AF +25%
Kade Frew run for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
- Q4 5:58AF +20%
Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
- Q1 6:11HAW +19%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Brandon White for 24 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q1 9:16AF +18%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
- Q4 4:30AF +18%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 34 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Air Force?
Hawai'i 44, Air Force 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 535 | Total yards | 494 |
| 457 | Passing yards | 278 |
| 78 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 26 | First downs | 17 |
| 14-19 | 3rd down | 3-6 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 35/47 | Comp/Att | 10/13 |
| 9.7 | Yards per pass | 21.4 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-17 | Penalties | 5-32 |
| 37:24 | Possession | 22:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:21 AF punt on 4th & 2 at AF 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:34HAWKansei Matsuzawa 25 Yd Field Goal 44–35
- Q4 4:30AFQuin Smith 34 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)41–35
- Q4 5:06HAWJackson Harris 74 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)41–28
- Q4 5:58AFKemper Hodges 2 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)34–28
- Q4 11:14HAWKansei Matsuzawa 39 Yd Field Goal 34–21
- Q4 14:04AFCade Harris 73 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)31–21
- Q4 14:55HAWCam Barfield 27 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)31–14
- Q3 2:44HAWLandon Sims 1 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)24–14
- Q3 12:33AFKade Frew 11 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)17–14
- Q2 3:49HAWKansei Matsuzawa 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 6:11HAWBrandon White 24 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:16AFBruin Fleischmann 5 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:25HAWJackson Harris 6 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1381, HAW Elo 1250 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -7.6 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 14–9–1 · Hawai'i has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| HAW | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 (#82) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#119) |
| +1 / +7 | offense / defense | +6 / +24 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 3.13 |
| 2.06 | allowed / drive | 3.57 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →