Georgia vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsAUB
- Q4 1:53UGAGunner Stockton 10 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)20–10
- Q3 1:22UGAPeyton Woodring 53 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 7:23UGAChauncey Bowens 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:13UGAPeyton Woodring 29 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 13:41AUBAlex McPherson 25 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:39AUBJackson Arnold 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UGA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AUB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassGunner Stockton 24/37, 217 YDS
- RushGunner Stockton 9 CAR, 26 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZachariah Branch 9 REC, 57 YDS
- PassJackson Arnold 19/31, 137 YDS
- RushJackson Arnold 13 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCam Coleman 7 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:43AUB +9%
Arnold, Jackson pass incomplete to Coleman, Cam, PENALTY UGA pass interference (Everette, Daylen) 5 yards to the UGA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUB
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Auburn?
Georgia 20, Auburn 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UGA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 296 | Total yards | 277 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 24/38 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 11-103 |
| 30:12 | Possession | 29:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:41 AUB field goal on 4th & 3 at UGA 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:53UGAGunner Stockton 10 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)20–10
- Q3 1:22UGAPeyton Woodring 53 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 7:23UGAChauncey Bowens 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:13UGAPeyton Woodring 29 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 13:41AUBAlex McPherson 25 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:39AUBJackson Arnold 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1676, UGA Elo 2033 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB +11.9 (23% to win) — 7.4 points clear of UGA's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 64–52–6 · Georgia has won 9 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| UGA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.0 (#15) | CORE overall | +13.6 (#30) |
| +9 / -11 | offense / defense | +2 / -12 |
| 3.08 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →