Georgia Southern vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 2:19MRSHAdrian Norton 41 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Lorcan Quinn Kick)24–19
- Q3 2:19MRSHAntwan Roberts 17 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q3 3:49GASOTripp Bryant 24 Yd Field Goal 24–6
- Q3 9:41GASOCamden Brown 12 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)21–6
- Q2 1:52MRSHLorcan Quinn 24 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q1 0:49GASOCamden Brown 14 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:53GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 33 Yd pass from Weston Bryan (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:06MRSHLorcan Quinn 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MRSH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassJC French IV 24/37, 313 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTaeo Todd 13 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecCamden Brown 9 REC, 157 YDS, 2 TD
- PassZion Turner 13/19, 172 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAntwan Roberts Jr. 1 CAR, 17 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAdrian Norton 8 REC, 160 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:41GASO +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.French IV pass complete short right to #0 C.Brown caught at MAR00, for 12 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:49GASO +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.French IV pass complete short right to #0 C.Brown caught at MAR00, for 14 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:35GASO +17%
Kneel down by Ga. Southern at MAR42 for loss of 1 yard
- Q4 2:19MRSH +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 Z.Turner pass complete deep right to #13 A.Norton caught at GS 10, for 41 yards to the GS 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 7:53GASO +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan pass complete deep left to #5 M.Sanders Jr. caught at MAR00, for 33 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 2:19MRSH +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 17 yards gain to the GS 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #1 Z.Turner pass attempt failed
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Marshall?
Georgia Southern 24, Marshall 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GASO | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 528 | Total yards | 372 |
| 355 | Passing yards | 308 |
| 173 | Rushing yards | 64 |
| 31 | First downs | 18 |
| 11-19 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 26/39 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 3-27 |
| 41:38 | Possession | 18:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:34 MRSH go for it on 4th & 10 at GASO 22. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:19MRSHAdrian Norton 41 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Lorcan Quinn Kick)24–19
- Q3 2:19MRSHAntwan Roberts 17 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q3 3:49GASOTripp Bryant 24 Yd Field Goal 24–6
- Q3 9:41GASOCamden Brown 12 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)21–6
- Q2 1:52MRSHLorcan Quinn 24 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q1 0:49GASOCamden Brown 14 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:53GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 33 Yd pass from Weston Bryan (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:06MRSHLorcan Quinn 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1495, GASO Elo 1250 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -12.2 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#72 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #33 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| GASO | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.7 (#105) | CORE overall | -2.7 (#71) |
| +2 / +17 | offense / defense | +0 / +3 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 3.06 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →