Joan C. Edwards StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 14 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
| MRSH | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MRSH 1495
GASO 1250
Projected spread
MRSH -12.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
MRSH
82% to win
Market spread
MRSH -10.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
82%
MRSH · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MRSH Elo 1495, GASO Elo 1250) plus home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -12.2 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MRSH (top)GASO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MRSH 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MRSH rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. MRSH rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge GASO.
- MRSH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge MRSH.
Drive-by-drive
GASO 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →MRSH 4/9 scoring drives
MRSHFG7 pl, 36 yds· own 39Q1
GASOTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MRSHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GASO up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
GASO went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Marshall?
Georgia Southern 24, Marshall 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MRSH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.