| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 7 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 29 |
| APP | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (APP Elo 1253, GASO Elo 1277) on a neutral field. That projects APP +1 (47% to win) — 9.0 points of value on APP versus the market line of +10.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = GASO ahead, below = APP ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GASO up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. App State?
Georgia Southern 29, App State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had GASO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.