Georgia Southern vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsAPP
- Q4 3:57GASOTripp Bryant 27 Yd Field Goal 29–10
- Q3 3:46APPDominic De Freitas 27 Yd Field Goal 26–10
- Q3 8:50GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 32 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)26–7
- Q3 13:34GASOWeston Bryan 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–7
- Q2 0:01GASOTripp Bryant 36 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 1:51APPMatthew Wilson 6 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:00GASOTripp Bryant 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:23GASOTerrance Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = GASO ahead, below = APP ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJC French IV 18/25, 171 YDS, 1 TD
- RushOJ Arnold 11 CAR, 152 YDS
- RecMarcus Sanders Jr. 5 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMatthew Wilson 12/22, 128 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMatthew Wilson 12 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDalton Stroman 3 REC, 96 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. App State?
Georgia Southern 29, App State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
| GASO | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 379 |
| 171 | Passing yards | 192 |
| 242 | Rushing yards | 187 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/27 | Comp/Att | 16/29 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 30:35 | Possession | 29:25 |
- Q4 3:57GASOTripp Bryant 27 Yd Field Goal 29–10
- Q3 3:46APPDominic De Freitas 27 Yd Field Goal 26–10
- Q3 8:50GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 32 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)26–7
- Q3 13:34GASOWeston Bryan 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–7
- Q2 0:01GASOTripp Bryant 36 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 1:51APPMatthew Wilson 6 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:00GASOTripp Bryant 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:23GASOTerrance Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1253, GASO Elo 1277 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects APP +1 (49% to win) — 9.0 points clear of APP's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesApp State leads 14–10 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| GASO | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.7 (#105) | CORE overall | -18.4 (#121) |
| +2 / +17 | offense / defense | -10 / +9 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 3.06 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →