Mon, Dec 29, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 7 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 29 |
| APP | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (APP Elo 1253, GASO Elo 1277) on a neutral field. That projects APP +1 (47% to win) — 9.0 points of value on APP versus the market line of +10.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = GASO ahead, below = APP ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
GASO up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia Southern 29, App State 10.
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had GASO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:41) Shotgun #6 M.Wilson pass intercepted by #12 T.Hill Jr. at GSU02 #12 T.Hill Jr. return 0 yards to the GSU02 (#26 K.Alexander)
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Wilson pass intercepted by #29 D.Collier at GSU02, End Of Play
(10:23) Shotgun #11 N.Gillon pass intercepted by #23 D.Smith at GSU35 #23 D.Smith return 0 yards to the GSU35, End Of Play
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