Florida
SEC· Elo 1656
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| MIA | 7 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIA Elo 1825, FLA Elo 1656) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIA -9.2 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MIA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida 7, Miami 26.
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
DJ Lagway sacked by Mohamed Toure for a loss of 9 yards to the MIA 45
DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
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