Florida vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsMIA
- Q4 1:56MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–26
- Q4 4:08MIACharMar Brown 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–19
- Q3 3:24FLAJadan Baugh 7 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–13
- Q2 1:29MIACarter Davis 28 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 14:04MIACarter Davis 53 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:25MIACharMar Brown 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDJ Lagway 12/23, 61 YDS
- RushJadan Baugh 12 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- RecVernell Brown III 2 REC, 22 YDS
- PassCarson Beck 17/30, 160 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 24 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCharMar Brown 4 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:17MIA +15%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the FLA 1
- Q3 3:24FLA +14%
Jadan Baugh run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q1 9:25MIA +13%
CharMar Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
- Q4 13:20MIA +8%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, downed at the FLA 18
- Q4 11:20FLA +7%
Tommy Doman punt for 54 yds, downed at the MIA 20
- Q3 3:16MIA +6%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Cormani McClain return for no gain to the FLA 48
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Miami?
Florida 7, Miami 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| FLA | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 141 | Total yards | 344 |
| 61 | Passing yards | 160 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 184 |
| 7 | First downs | 21 |
| 0-13 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/23 | Comp/Att | 17/30 |
| 2.7 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 6-30 |
| 23:30 | Possession | 36:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:36 MIA punt on 4th & 4 at FLA 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–26
- Q4 4:08MIACharMar Brown 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–19
- Q3 3:24FLAJadan Baugh 7 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–13
- Q2 1:29MIACarter Davis 28 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 14:04MIACarter Davis 53 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:25MIACharMar Brown 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1825, FLA Elo 1656 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -9.2 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 31–27 · Miami has won 2 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| FLA | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.5 (#59) | CORE overall | +31.1 (#6) |
| +0 / -3 | offense / defense | +14 / -18 |
| 1.68 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →