← All games
Florida State vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Fri, Sep 26, 11:00 PM
Scott StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 0 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 38 |
| UVA | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 46 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UVA 1565
FSU 1577
Projected spread
UVA -1.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
UVA
56% to win
Market spread
UVA +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
UVA
8.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
UVA · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1565, FSU Elo 1577) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -1.9 (56% to win) — 8.9 points of value on UVA versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UVA (top)FSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UVA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
FSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUVA
Offense
0.27
PPA / play
0.1846%
Success rate
42%1.35
Explosiveness
1.293.95
Pts / opportunity
3.5675%
Power success
81%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.0642%
Success rate allowed
37%1.16
Explosiveness allowed
1.1916%
Havoc rate
18%15%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. UVA rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge FSU.
- FSU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. UVA pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge FSU.
- UVA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. FSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge UVA.
Drive-by-drive
FSU 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →UVA 7/13 scoring drives
UVAPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1
FSUPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 20Q1
UVAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 29Q1
FSUFUM1 pl, -5 yds· own 43Q1
UVATD7 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q1
FSUINT10 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1
UVATD15 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
FSUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
UVAINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
FSUTD4 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q2
UVAINT4 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2
FSUTD6 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2
UVATD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
FSUEND6 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
FSUMISS11 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q3
UVATD12 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3
FSUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
UVATD16 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
FSUDOWNS9 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q4
UVAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 22Q4
FSUTD8 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4
UVAINT3 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4
FSUEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 30Q4
FSUDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 25OT
UVADOWNS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 25OT
UVATD4 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT
FSUINT4 pl, -2 yds· opp 25OT
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
UVA win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Virginia?
Florida State 38, Virginia 46.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.