Florida State vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsUVA
- 2OT 0:00UVAChandler Morris 4 Yd Run (Chandler Morris Pass to Trell Harris for Two-Point Conversion)38–46
- OT 0:00UVAWill Bettridge 39 Yd Field Goal38–38
- OT 0:00FSUJake Weinberg 36 Yd Field Goal38–35
- Q4 0:36FSURandy Pittman Jr. 11 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)35–35
- Q4 7:20UVAXavier Brown 15 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)28–35
- Q3 0:18FSUDuce Robinson 4 Yd pass from Randy Pittman Jr. (Jake Weinberg Kick)28–28
- Q3 3:45UVAChandler Morris 7 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)21–28
- Q2 0:48UVAJ'Mari Taylor 26 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)21–21
- Q2 2:32FSUTommy Castellanos 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)21–14
- Q2 5:29FSURandy Pittman Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:52FSUGavin Sawchuk 2 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–14
- Q2 9:43UVAChandler Morris 11 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:05UVASage Ennis 6 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassThomas Castellanos 18/32, 254 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushThomas Castellanos 14 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDuce Robinson 9 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChandler Morris 26/35, 229 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 27 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJahmal Edrine 5 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00FSU +96%
Kneel down by Florida St. at FSU28 for loss of 2 yards
- Q4 0:36FSU +83%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
- Q4 0:26UVA +72%
J'Mari Taylor run for no gain to the UVA 25
- OT 0:00UVA +48%
W.Bettridge 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Robinson, Holder-D.Sparks
- Q4 7:20UVA +32%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Xavier Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
- 2OT 0:00UVA +32%
C.Morris scrambles for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Virginia?
Florida State 38, Virginia 46.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| FSU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 514 | Total yards | 440 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 256 | Rushing yards | 211 |
| 24 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 26/36 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-49 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 28:03 | Possession | 31:57 |
Costliest call
Q4 0:36 FSU go for it on 4th & 11 at UVA 11. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00UVAChandler Morris 4 Yd Run (Chandler Morris Pass to Trell Harris for Two-Point Conversion)38–46
- OT 0:00UVAWill Bettridge 39 Yd Field Goal38–38
- OT 0:00FSUJake Weinberg 36 Yd Field Goal38–35
- Q4 0:36FSURandy Pittman Jr. 11 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)35–35
- Q4 7:20UVAXavier Brown 15 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)28–35
- Q3 0:18FSUDuce Robinson 4 Yd pass from Randy Pittman Jr. (Jake Weinberg Kick)28–28
- Q3 3:45UVAChandler Morris 7 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)21–28
- Q2 0:48UVAJ'Mari Taylor 26 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)21–21
- Q2 2:32FSUTommy Castellanos 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)21–14
- Q2 5:29FSURandy Pittman Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:52FSUGavin Sawchuk 2 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–14
- Q2 9:43UVAChandler Morris 11 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:05UVASage Ennis 6 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1565, FSU Elo 1577 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -1.9 (56% to win) — 8.9 points clear of UVA's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#74 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #64 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #7 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Florida State leads 15–5 · Virginia has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| FSU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#29) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#39) |
| +13 / -1 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →